{"id":124681,"date":"2020-11-04T13:44:13","date_gmt":"2020-11-04T12:44:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.pauljorion.com\/blog\/?p=124681"},"modified":"2020-11-04T13:44:13","modified_gmt":"2020-11-04T12:44:13","slug":"covid-19-la-montee-epidemique-ne-sasseche-pas-mais-naccelere-pas-non-plus-par-a113","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.pauljorion.com\/blog\/2020\/11\/04\/covid-19-la-montee-epidemique-ne-sasseche-pas-mais-naccelere-pas-non-plus-par-a113\/","title":{"rendered":"Covid-19 : <b>La mont\u00e9e \u00e9pid\u00e9mique ne \u00ab\u00a0s\u2019ass\u00e8che\u00a0\u00bb pas mais n\u2019acc\u00e9l\u00e8re pas non plus<\/b>, par a113"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><i><b><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-124682\" src=\"https:\/\/www.pauljorion.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/tendance0411.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"788\" height=\"508\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.pauljorion.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/tendance0411.jpg 788w, https:\/\/www.pauljorion.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/tendance0411-300x193.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.pauljorion.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/tendance0411-768x495.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 788px) 100vw, 788px\" \/>La courbe bleue <\/b><\/i><i>repr\u00e9sente le\u00a0<\/i><i><b>taux de variation des admissions en r\u00e9animation\u00a0<\/b><\/i><i>(en comparant la moyenne des 7 jours courant \u00e0 celle de la veille) appel\u00e9 ici\u00a0 : \u00ab\u00a0dynamique\u00a0\u00bb (d%)<\/i><br \/>\n<i>si &gt;0 , les services se remplissent<\/i><br \/>\n<i>si=0 , situation en plateau<\/i><br \/>\n<i>si&lt;0 , les services se vident.<\/i><i><br \/>\n<\/i><\/p>\n<p><i><b>on est &gt;0 depuis fin Juillet +++<\/b><\/i><\/p>\n<p><b><u>la courbe rouge<\/u>\u00a0est la courbe en valeur absolue liss\u00e9e sur une semaine des entr\u00e9es en r\u00e9animations\u00a0<\/b>(multiplier par 100 pour obtenir le chiffre r\u00e9el.)<\/p>\n<p>______________________________<wbr><\/wbr>______________________________<wbr><\/wbr>______________________________<wbr><\/wbr>_______<\/p>\n<p><i><b>la courbe bleue<\/b><\/i> oscille toujours autour de 4.5% d\u2019augmentation &#8230; la mont\u00e9e \u00e9pid\u00e9mique ne \u00ab\u00a0s\u2019ass\u00e8che\u00a0\u00bb pas , mais ne s\u2019acc\u00e9l\u00e8re pas non plus (temps de doublement +- 15\/jours &#8230; s&rsquo;il n&rsquo;y a pas de baisse d\u2019ici le 15\/11 , plus de 8000 patients en r\u00e9a, record d&rsquo;avril battu !)<\/p>\n<p>par contre , on note une baisse nette des taux d&rsquo;incidence sur la moiti\u00e9 Ouest des d\u00e9partements , ainsi qu&rsquo;une petite baisse \u00e0 l&rsquo;Est (d\u00e9but des\u00a0 effets du couvre-feu ? ) , mais tr\u00e8s in\u00e9gale +++<\/p>\n<p>les effets sur la r\u00e9a en seront diff\u00e9r\u00e9s d&rsquo;ici 3-4 semaines.<\/p>\n<p>il me semble que d&rsquo;ici la p\u00e9riode de 4 semaines, s&rsquo;il y a quelques r\u00e9sultats, ils seront oblig\u00e9s de revenir \u00e0 un syst\u00e8me de couvre-feu , sinon ces mesures seront difficiles \u00e0 g\u00e9rer.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p><i><b><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-124682\" src=\"https:\/\/www.pauljorion.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/tendance0411.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"788\" height=\"508\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.pauljorion.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/tendance0411.jpg 788w, https:\/\/www.pauljorion.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/tendance0411-300x193.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.pauljorion.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/tendance0411-768x495.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 788px) 100vw, 788px\" \/>La courbe bleue <\/b><\/i><i>repr\u00e9sente le\u00a0<\/i><i><b>taux de variation des admissions en r\u00e9animation\u00a0<\/b><\/i><i>(en comparant la moyenne des 7 jours courant \u00e0 celle de la veille) appel\u00e9 ici\u00a0 : \u00ab\u00a0dynamique\u00a0\u00bb (d%)<\/i><br \/> <i>si &gt;0 , les services se remplissent<\/i><br \/> <i>si=0 , situation en plateau<\/i><br \/> <i>si&lt;0 , les services [&hellip;]<\/i><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_crdt_document":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[7095,7515,6301],"tags":[7096,7019,7072,7231,7102],"class_list":["post-124681","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-confinement","category-deuxieme-vague","category-epidemiologie","tag-confinement","tag-coronavirus","tag-covid-19","tag-deuxieme-vague","tag-pandemie"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pauljorion.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/124681","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pauljorion.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pauljorion.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pauljorion.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pauljorion.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=124681"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.pauljorion.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/124681\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":124685,"href":"https:\/\/www.pauljorion.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/124681\/revisions\/124685"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pauljorion.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=124681"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pauljorion.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=124681"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pauljorion.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=124681"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}