{"id":14209,"date":"2010-07-23T20:52:15","date_gmt":"2010-07-23T18:52:15","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.pauljorion.com\/blog\/?p=14209"},"modified":"2013-01-02T17:58:49","modified_gmt":"2013-01-02T16:58:49","slug":"tests-de-stress-des-scenarios-catastrophe-tres-sympathiques","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.pauljorion.com\/blog\/2010\/07\/23\/tests-de-stress-des-scenarios-catastrophe-tres-sympathiques\/","title":{"rendered":"Tests de stress : des sc\u00e9narios catastrophe tr\u00e8s sympathiques"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"http:\/\/stress-test.c-ebs.org\/documents\/Summaryreport.pdf\">Aggregate outcome of the 2010 EU wide stress test exercise coordinated by CEBS in cooperation with the ECB<\/a>, page 18 :<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Pour la zone euro, l\u2019hypoth\u00e8se de croissance du PIB dans le sc\u00e9nario de base est +0,7 % (2010) et +1,5 % (2011), tandis que dans le sc\u00e9nario d\u00e9favorable, la zone euro conna\u00eetra une baisse de PIB de -0,2 % en 2010 et de -0,6 % en 2011. Pour l\u2019ensemble de l\u2019Union europ\u00e9enne (EU27), le sc\u00e9nario de base suppose une croissance de 1 % du PIB et de 1,7 % en 2011, alors que dans le sc\u00e9nario d\u00e9favorable, le PIB n\u2019augmentera pas en 2010 et d\u00e9clinera de -0,4 % en 2011. <\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>La baisse de -0,6 % du PIB en 2011, appliqu\u00e9e dans le sc\u00e9nario \u00ab catastrophe \u00bb des tests de stress pour la zone euro doit \u00eatre compar\u00e9e avec les -4 % r\u00e9ellement observ\u00e9s en 2009. L&rsquo;ampleur de la catastrophe envisag\u00e9e repr\u00e9sente donc 15 % de celle qui fut observ\u00e9e, elle m\u00e9rite donc en tout cas d\u2019\u00eatre qualifi\u00e9e de \u00ab tr\u00e8s sympathique \u00bb.  <\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.pauljorion.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/Stress-test.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.pauljorion.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/Stress-test.jpg\" alt=\"\" title=\"Stress-test\" width=\"885\" height=\"600\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-14210\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"http:\/\/stress-test.c-ebs.org\/documents\/Summaryreport.pdf\">Aggregate outcome of the 2010 EU wide stress test exercise coordinated by CEBS in cooperation with the ECB<\/a>, page 18 :<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>Pour la zone euro, l\u2019hypoth\u00e8se de croissance du PIB dans le sc\u00e9nario de base est +0,7 % (2010) et +1,5 % (2011), tandis que dans le sc\u00e9nario d\u00e9favorable, la zone euro conna\u00eetra une [&hellip;]<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_crdt_document":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1,18],"tags":[96,671,243],"class_list":["post-14209","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economie","category-monde-financier","tag-croissance","tag-stress-tests","tag-zone-euro"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pauljorion.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14209","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pauljorion.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pauljorion.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pauljorion.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pauljorion.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=14209"}],"version-history":[{"count":8,"href":"https:\/\/www.pauljorion.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14209\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":48123,"href":"https:\/\/www.pauljorion.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14209\/revisions\/48123"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pauljorion.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=14209"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pauljorion.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=14209"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pauljorion.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=14209"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}