{"id":142918,"date":"2025-01-21T16:57:42","date_gmt":"2025-01-21T15:57:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.pauljorion.com\/blog\/?p=142918"},"modified":"2025-03-23T17:04:10","modified_gmt":"2025-03-23T16:04:10","slug":"la-singularite-en-direct-sous-vos-yeux","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.pauljorion.com\/blog\/2025\/01\/21\/la-singularite-en-direct-sous-vos-yeux\/","title":{"rendered":"<b>La Singularit\u00e9 : en direct, sous vos yeux&nbsp;!<\/b>"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"YouTube video player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/LYxQbgAUzsQ?si=d3GH_8BuhbEq2Och\" width=\"700\" height=\"450\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>Comme annonc\u00e9 ici (le 4 mai 2024) :<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" width=\"700\" height=\"450\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/Bae3M-NQuxA?si=ro6-UXYbrUNEB1pN\" title=\"YouTube video player\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><strong>Retranscription en fran\u00e7ais<\/strong> :<\/p>\n<p>Quelles sont les preuves que la Singularit\u00e9 a eu lieu ? <\/p>\n<p>Ces derniers mois, je me suis demand\u00e9 comment nous pourrions le savoir. Lorsque la Singularit\u00e9 aura lieu, tout deviendra tr\u00e8s diff\u00e9rent parce qu&rsquo;il y aura eu une acc\u00e9l\u00e9ration dans la fa\u00e7on dont les choses changent. Et de plus en plus, ce sont les IA qui se parlent entre elles qui feront avancer un processus dynamique dans lequel le point de vue des \u00eatres humains sera de moins en moins n\u00e9cessaire pour faire partie du processus. <\/p>\n<p>Vous savez, je me demandais s&rsquo;il y aurait des signes r\u00e9v\u00e9lateurs de cette \u00e9volution. Et je pense avoir trouv\u00e9 une preuve, aussi indirecte soit-elle. <\/p>\n<p>Ces derniers mois, j&rsquo;ai pris l&rsquo;habitude, pour toute question que j&rsquo;essayais de r\u00e9soudre, de demander d&rsquo;abord l&rsquo;avis de GPT-4. Puis, lorsque Claude 3 est arriv\u00e9, j&rsquo;ai commenc\u00e9 \u00e0 demander l&rsquo;avis des deux. Et r\u00e9cemment, j&rsquo;ai travaill\u00e9 sur la question P vs NP, de la mani\u00e8re suivante : j&rsquo;ai demand\u00e9 \u00e0 Claude de se diviser en deux parties, bon flic \/ mauvais flic, et d&rsquo;avoir un dialogue, enfin, un trialogue avec moi, et d&rsquo;essayer d&rsquo;avancer sur la question. Ensuite, je soumettrais \u00e0 GPT-4 le r\u00e9sultat, l&rsquo;aboutissement de ce que seront les conclusions auxquelles nous serons parvenus. Et, avec ce retour d&rsquo;information de GPT-4, je le transmettais \u00e0 Claude et je voyais, vous savez, comment nous pouvions continuer \u00e0 travailler sur la question. Plus r\u00e9cemment, lorsque LLama-3 a \u00e9t\u00e9 publi\u00e9, j&rsquo;ai ajout\u00e9 LLama-3 \u00e0 la discussion. <\/p>\n<p>Et ce qui s&rsquo;est pass\u00e9 aujourd&rsquo;hui, apr\u00e8s avoir examin\u00e9 un certain nombre de rapports, c&rsquo;est que je me suis dit : vais-je travailler ce week-end sur un autre sujet ? Et je me suis dit, oui, d&rsquo;accord, et je vais proc\u00e9der avec la m\u00eame m\u00e9thode : demander \u00e0 l&rsquo;un ou \u00e0 l&rsquo;autre, puis renvoyer l&rsquo;information au second et essayer d&rsquo;avancer \u00e0 partir de l\u00e0. <\/p>\n<p>Mais la nouvelle que j&rsquo;ai entendue aujourd&rsquo;hui m&rsquo;a fait h\u00e9siter. Et j&rsquo;ai compris pourquoi : en ce moment, j&rsquo;attends la sortie d&rsquo;une nouvelle g\u00e9n\u00e9ration de GPT. GPT, qui pourrait \u00eatre \u00ab 5 \u00bb ou appel\u00e9 diff\u00e9remment, \u00ab 4.5 \u00bb ou quelque chose comme \u00e7a. Et pourquoi est-ce que j&rsquo;attends maintenant au lieu de continuer ? Parce que je pense que les efforts que je vais d\u00e9ployer pour essayer d&rsquo;approfondir le probl\u00e8me et de passer \u00e0 autre chose seront gaspill\u00e9s lorsque la nouvelle version arrivera. <\/p>\n<p>Je ne vais donc pas plus loin parce que j&rsquo;attends une nouvelle version d&rsquo;une intelligence artificielle, pensant que je pourrais gaspiller mes efforts si je travaillais entre-temps jusqu&rsquo;\u00e0 ce que cette version soit disponible, et je pense que cela montre en fait, comme je l&rsquo;ai dit, indirectement, mais cela montre que nous, les \u00eatres humains, sommes en grande partie hors course. <\/p>\n<p>Je ne sais pas ce que vous pensez de mon raisonnement, mais n&rsquo;h\u00e9sitez pas \u00e0 me le faire savoir. Faites-le moi savoir : j&rsquo;aimerais savoir ce que vous en pensez. D&rsquo;accord, au revoir !<\/p>\n<p><strong>Retranscription en anglais<\/strong> :<\/p>\n<p>What evidence is there that the Singularity has taken place? <\/p>\n<p>I was wondering in recent months, how would we know? When the Singularity takes place, then everything becomes very different because there&rsquo;s been an acceleration in the way things change. And more and more it&rsquo;s AIs talking to each other that will make some dynamic process go on where the views of human beings will be less and less required to be part of the process. <\/p>\n<p>You know, I was wondering: will there be any telltale signs that this has happened? And I think I&rsquo;ve found some evidence however indirect it might be. <\/p>\n<p>In recent months, I&rsquo;ve taken the habit of, on any issue I tried to solve, to ask the views first of GPT-4. Then when Claude 3 happened, I started asking both. And recently I worked on the P vs NP issue, in the following manner: I asked Claude to split itself into a good cop \/ bad cop two-part and have a dialogue, well, a trialogue with me, and try to advance on the issue. Then I would submit to GPT-4 the result, the outcome of what will be the conclusions we reached. And, with that feedback of GPT-4, I would feed that back to Claude and see, you know, how we could go on, working on the issue. And even more recently, when LLama-3 was released, I added LLama-3 to the discussion. <\/p>\n<p>And what happened today, after having looked at a number of reports, is that I thought the following: will I work this weekend on another issue? And I thought, yeah, okay, and I&rsquo;ll proceed with the same method: asking one or the other and then feeding that back to the second one and trying to move on from there. <\/p>\n<p>But the news I heard today, made me hesitant. And I&rsquo;ve realised just why: right now I&rsquo;m actually waiting for the release of a next generation of GPT. GPT, which might be \u00ab\u00a05\u00a0\u00bb or called differently, \u00ab\u00a04.5\u00a0\u00bb or something like that. And why am I waiting now instead of proceeding? Because I think that the effort I will put into trying to develop the issue further down and move on, will be wasted whenever the new release will come. <\/p>\n<p>So now I&rsquo;m not going further because I&rsquo;m waiting for a further release of an artificial intelligence, thinking that I may waste some effort if I worked in the meantime until that release is there, and I think that actually shows, as I said, indirectly, but it shows that, we human beings are very much out of the race. <\/p>\n<p>Okay. I don&rsquo;t know what you think about my reasoning, but, please let me know. Let me know: I&rsquo;d like to know what you think about it. Okay, bye!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"YouTube video player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/LYxQbgAUzsQ?si=d3GH_8BuhbEq2Och\" width=\"700\" height=\"450\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>Comme annonc\u00e9 ici (le 4 mai 2024) :<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" width=\"700\" height=\"450\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/Bae3M-NQuxA?si=ro6-UXYbrUNEB1pN\" title=\"YouTube video player\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><strong>Retranscription en fran\u00e7ais<\/strong> :<\/p>\n<p>Quelles sont les preuves que la Singularit\u00e9 a eu lieu ? <\/p>\n<p>Ces derniers mois, je me [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9457,6213],"tags":[9473,9880,3997],"class_list":["post-142918","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-lavenement-de-la-singularite-lhumain-ebranle-par-lintelligence-artificielle","category-singularite","tag-lavenement-de-la-singularite","tag-deepseek","tag-singularite"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pauljorion.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/142918","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pauljorion.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pauljorion.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pauljorion.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pauljorion.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=142918"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.pauljorion.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/142918\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":142926,"href":"https:\/\/www.pauljorion.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/142918\/revisions\/142926"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pauljorion.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=142918"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pauljorion.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=142918"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pauljorion.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=142918"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}