{"id":145205,"date":"2025-09-05T17:41:28","date_gmt":"2025-09-05T15:41:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.pauljorion.com\/blog\/?p=145205"},"modified":"2025-09-07T14:04:01","modified_gmt":"2025-09-07T12:04:01","slug":"en-ce-vendredi-de-debut-septembre-il-vaut-mieux-etre-vous-que-donald-trump","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.pauljorion.com\/blog\/2025\/09\/05\/en-ce-vendredi-de-debut-septembre-il-vaut-mieux-etre-vous-que-donald-trump\/","title":{"rendered":"<b>En ce vendredi de d\u00e9but septembre, il vaut mieux \u00eatre vous que Donald Trump&nbsp;!<\/b>"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-106247\" src=\"https:\/\/www.pauljorion.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/Les-porteurs-de-mauvaises-nouvelles.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"700\" height=\"458\" \/><\/p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>Les porteurs de mauvaises nouvelles par Jean-Jules-Antoine Lecomte du No\u00fcy<\/em><\/p>\r\n<p>Je vous rappelle la s\u00e9rie noire pour Trump dont je parlais <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=H7F2YElu6cw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">hier dans ma vid\u00e9o<\/a> : ill\u00e9galit\u00e9 de l&rsquo;envoi des troupes en Californie, ill\u00e9galit\u00e9 des tarifs douaniers, ill\u00e9galit\u00e9 de la suppression des fonds allou\u00e9s \u00e0 Harvard. Mais, comme si trois malheurs n&rsquo;arrivaient jamais seuls, sont tomb\u00e9s aujourd&rsquo;hui les chiffres US de l&#8217;emploi pour ao\u00fbt.<\/p>\r\n<p><em>Flash-back<\/em> : Comme les chiffres de l&#8217;emploi pour juillet avaient \u00e9t\u00e9 m\u00e9diocres : 73 000 au lieu des 120 000 &#8211; 150 000 mensuels attendus bon an, mal an, Trump avait pr\u00e9sent\u00e9 ses plus plates excuses au peuple am\u00e9ricain &#8211; non, je plaisante bien entendu : il avait d\u00e9capit\u00e9 la direction du bureau des statistiques ! <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.pauljorion.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/Emoji2022-12-02-a\u0300-23.49.44.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"30\" height=\"30\" \/> \u00a0<\/p>\r\n<p><strong>Emplois cr\u00e9\u00e9s en ao\u00fbt : 22 000<\/strong> (donc 6 \u00e0 7 fois moins que d&rsquo;habitude) !<\/p>\r\n<p>Et &#8230; cerise sur le gateau : le chiffre pour juin est r\u00e9vis\u00e9 de +14 000 \u00e0 -13 000 !<\/p>\r\n<p>Malheureusement pour Trump il ne pourra pas d\u00e9capiter une seconde fois la direction du d\u00e9partement des statistiques : la nouvelle \u00e9quipe n&rsquo;est pas encore en place. Mais heureusement pour lui, ses tarifs douaniers \u00e9tant d\u00e9clar\u00e9s inconstitutionnels, le commerce va repartir (enfin, d\u00e8s que ses pourvois en appel auront \u00e9t\u00e9 invalid\u00e9s) !<\/p>\r\n<p>Seule consolation pour Trump dans la journ\u00e9e d&rsquo;aujourd&rsquo;hui : sa d\u00e9cision de d\u00e9baptiser le \u00ab\u00a0Minist\u00e8re de la D\u00e9fense\u00a0\u00bb en \u00ab\u00a0Minist\u00e8re de la Guerre\u00a0\u00bb &#8211;\u00a0 une d\u00e9cision d\u00e9chirante sans aucun doute pour un pacifiste endurci comme lui, mais au moins Xi Jinping, Poutine et Kim Jong-un n&rsquo;en dormiront pas cette nuit\u00a0! \r\n&nbsp;\r\n<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-145209\" src=\"https:\/\/www.pauljorion.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/Capture-de\u0301cran-2025-09-05-a\u0300-17.21.43.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1294\" height=\"980\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.pauljorion.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/Capture-de\u0301cran-2025-09-05-a\u0300-17.21.43.png 1294w, https:\/\/www.pauljorion.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/Capture-de\u0301cran-2025-09-05-a\u0300-17.21.43-300x227.png 300w, https:\/\/www.pauljorion.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/Capture-de\u0301cran-2025-09-05-a\u0300-17.21.43-1024x776.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.pauljorion.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/Capture-de\u0301cran-2025-09-05-a\u0300-17.21.43-768x582.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1294px) 100vw, 1294px\" \/> \u00a9 Dow Jones<\/p>\r\n\r\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\r\n\r\n\r\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>1)\u00a0Chiffres annonc\u00e9s aujourd\u2019hui (septembre 2025, pour ao\u00fbt) et r\u00e9visions des trois mois pr\u00e9c\u00e9dents<\/strong><\/h3>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\r\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\r\n<li><strong>Ao\u00fbt 2025<\/strong> : +22 000 emplois cr\u00e9\u00e9s (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/news.release\/empsit.nr0.htm?utm_source=chatgpt.com\">bls.gov<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/us-job-growth-weakened-sharply-august-unemployment-rate-rises-43-2025-09-05\/?utm_source=chatgpt.com\">reuters<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/business\/2025\/09\/05\/jobs-report-economy-unemployment\/?utm_source=chatgpt.com\">washingtonpost<\/a>).<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\r\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\r\n<li><strong>Juillet 2025<\/strong> (r\u00e9vis\u00e9) : annonc\u00e9 initialement \u00e0 +73 000, corrig\u00e9 \u00e0 <strong>+79 000<\/strong>.<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\r\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\r\n<li><strong>Juin 2025<\/strong> (r\u00e9vis\u00e9) : annonc\u00e9 \u00e0 +14 000, corrig\u00e9 \u00e0 <strong>\u201313 000<\/strong> (premi\u00e8re destruction nette d\u2019emplois depuis d\u00e9cembre 2020).<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\r\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\r\n<li><strong>Mai 2025<\/strong> : pas de nouvelle r\u00e9vision mentionn\u00e9e ce mois-ci (derni\u00e8re disponible : forte baisse, voir plus bas).<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n\r\n\r\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\r\n\r\n\r\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>2)\u00a0Chiffres annonc\u00e9s il y a un mois (rapport de juillet publi\u00e9 d\u00e9but ao\u00fbt 2025) et r\u00e9visions alors communiqu\u00e9es<\/strong><\/h3>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p>Dans le rapport de <strong>juillet 2025<\/strong> (sorti le 1er ao\u00fbt) :<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\r\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\r\n<li><strong>Juillet 2025<\/strong> : annonc\u00e9 \u00e0 <strong>+73 000<\/strong>.<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\r\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\r\n<li><strong>Juin 2025<\/strong> : r\u00e9vis\u00e9 de +14 000 \u00e0 <strong>\u201313 000<\/strong> (soit \u201327 000).<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\r\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\r\n<li><strong>Mai 2025<\/strong> : r\u00e9vis\u00e9 de +144 000 \u00e0 environ <strong>+19 000<\/strong> (\u2013125 000).<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\r\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\r\n<li><strong>Avril 2025<\/strong> : pas de r\u00e9vision annonc\u00e9e \u00e0 ce moment-l\u00e0.<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p>Les r\u00e9visions de mai et juin repr\u00e9sentaient \u00e0 elles seules une correction de <strong>\u2013258 000 emplois<\/strong>.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\r\n\r\n\r\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>3)\u00a0Pr\u00e9visions (consensus) vs. r\u00e9alit\u00e9 pour juillet et ao\u00fbt<\/strong><\/h3>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\r\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\r\n<li><strong>Juillet 2025<\/strong> :\r\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\r\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\r\n<li>Consensus : environ <strong>+100 000<\/strong> attendus.<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\r\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\r\n<li>R\u00e9el (initial) : <strong>+73 000<\/strong>.<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\r\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\r\n<li>R\u00e9vis\u00e9 : <strong>+79 000<\/strong>.<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\r\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\r\n<li><strong>Ao\u00fbt 2025<\/strong> :\r\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\r\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\r\n<li>Consensus : environ <strong>+75 000<\/strong> attendus.<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\r\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\r\n<li>R\u00e9el : <strong>+22 000<\/strong>.<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n\r\n\r\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\r\n\r\n\r\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>4)\u00a0Pr\u00e9sentation sous forme de tableau<\/strong><\/h3>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\">\r\n<table class=\"has-fixed-layout\">\r\n<thead>\r\n<tr>\r\n<th><strong>Mois<\/strong><\/th>\r\n<th><strong>Pr\u00e9visions (consensus)<\/strong><\/th>\r\n<th><strong>R\u00e9el (initial)<\/strong><\/th>\r\n<th><strong>R\u00e9vis\u00e9 (le cas \u00e9ch\u00e9ant)<\/strong><\/th>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n<\/thead>\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td>Mai 2025<\/td>\r\n<td>\u2014<\/td>\r\n<td>+144 000<\/td>\r\n<td>~+19 000 (\u2013125 000)<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td>Juin 2025<\/td>\r\n<td>\u2014<\/td>\r\n<td>+14 000<\/td>\r\n<td>\u201313 000 (\u201327 000)<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td>Juillet 2025<\/td>\r\n<td>~100 000<\/td>\r\n<td>+73 000<\/td>\r\n<td>+79 000 (+6 000)<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td>Ao\u00fbt 2025<\/td>\r\n<td>~75 000<\/td>\r\n<td>+22 000<\/td>\r\n<td>\u2014<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n<\/tbody>\r\n<\/table>\r\n<\/figure>\r\n\r\n\r\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\r\n\r\n\r\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Lecture d\u2019ensemble<\/strong><\/h3>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\r\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\r\n<li>L\u2019<strong>emploi ralentit fortement<\/strong> : ao\u00fbt (+22k) est bien en-de\u00e7\u00e0 des attentes, et juin a finalement bascul\u00e9 en <strong>territoire n\u00e9gatif<\/strong>.<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\r\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\r\n<li>Les <strong>r\u00e9visions massives<\/strong> de mai et juin soulignent que la situation \u00e9tait plus fragile que pr\u00e9vu.<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\r\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\r\n<li>Le march\u00e9 du travail para\u00eet d\u00e9sormais <strong>nettement refroidi<\/strong>, renfor\u00e7ant l\u2019hypoth\u00e8se d\u2019un prochain <strong>assouplissement mon\u00e9taire de la Fed<\/strong>.<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n\r\n\r\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\r\n<p>ChatGPT-5<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-106247\" src=\"https:\/\/www.pauljorion.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/Les-porteurs-de-mauvaises-nouvelles.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"700\" height=\"458\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>Les porteurs de mauvaises nouvelles par Jean-Jules-Antoine Lecomte du No\u00fcy<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Je vous rappelle la s\u00e9rie noire pour Trump dont je parlais <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=H7F2YElu6cw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">hier dans ma vid\u00e9o<\/a> : ill\u00e9galit\u00e9 de l&rsquo;envoi des troupes en Californie, ill\u00e9galit\u00e9 des tarifs douaniers, ill\u00e9galit\u00e9 de la suppression [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[10348,72,7228],"tags":[4442,10349,5567,238,3641,5129],"class_list":["post-145205","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-emploi","category-etats-unis","category-statistiques","tag-donald-trump","tag-emploi-us","tag-kim-jong-un","tag-statistiques","tag-vladimir-poutine","tag-xi-jinping"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pauljorion.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/145205","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pauljorion.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pauljorion.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pauljorion.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pauljorion.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=145205"}],"version-history":[{"count":9,"href":"https:\/\/www.pauljorion.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/145205\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":145224,"href":"https:\/\/www.pauljorion.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/145205\/revisions\/145224"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pauljorion.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=145205"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pauljorion.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=145205"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pauljorion.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=145205"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}