Paul Jorion's Blog

Author: Julien Alexandre

  • THE GOLDEN TOUCH, by François Leclerc

    Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell and Bernard Bouvet In spite of the promise of a hundred billion Euros which has been brought to the table, the markets are still not convinced, and it didn’t take them long to react. By late afternoon, Spanish borrowing rates were edging up again, reaching 6.508%,…

  • WHEN THE WISE MAN POINTS AT THE MOON… (I), by François Leclerc

    Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell. The chaotic ups and downs of the deleveraging process continue inexorably, affecting not only the debt of the member states but also a European banking system which is now in the same mess. What it had been concealing has now been revealed: it is in a…

  • THE RAMIFICATIONS OF THE SPANISH BANKING BAIL-OUT, by François Leclerc

    Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell. Some important details are still lacking with regard to the Spanish banking bailout plan: its final amount, which is going to depend on the results of the audit commissioned by the government; its rate, which we will be coming back to; and the stabilizing measures for…

  • A HUNDRED BILLION EUROS FOR SPANISH BANKS, by François Leclerc

    Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell. It was no longer possible to carry on. Two and a half hours of videoconference between the Eurozone’s finance ministers (joined by Christine Lagarde on behalf of the IMF) were needed to finalize the scheme, allowing the German and Spanish governments to save face. Germany made…

  • KEEP KICKING THE CAN DOWN THE ROAD…, by François Leclerc

    Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell. The case has been heard: Barack Obama and David Cameron demanded immediate action from the Euro zone leaders, frightened by the prospect of the Spanish and Greek crises occurring at the same time, and Angela Merkel responded by announcing that no miracles should be expected from…

  • DIFFERING DELUSIONS, by François Leclerc

    Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell. Worried by the sight of the Europeans entrenched in their respective positions, Barack Obama reached for his telephone. The day after the G7 videoconference between the Finance ministers and the central bankers, of which nothing came, he successively called David Cameron, Angela Merkel and Mario Monti.…

  • THE INSURERS WILL NOT BE LEFT UNSCATHED, by François Leclerc

    Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell. In the United States, bad news often arrives via the Congressional Budget office (CBO). Reputed for its analyses, this non-partisan Congressional body has just produced a forward-looking report on American debt. According to the CBO, if the tax cuts are renewed and public spending is maintained…

  • A WAIT DESTINED TO LAST, by François Leclerc

    Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell. The European Commission in Brussels is getting ready to unveil a project aiming to prevent and cure the banking crises, destined to enter into service in 2014, certain procedures being foreseen for 2018. There is a certain sense of timing, but certainly not a sense of…

  • WHEN FATE INTERVENES…, by François Leclerc

    Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell. In the blink of an eye, discussions have switched focus. The issue of growth which was at the forefront has rapidly surrendered its place to the elaboration of a plan for the supervision of the banks and the rescue of those in need. Improvisation continues to…

  • NEVER CHANGE A WINNING TEAM !, by François Leclerc

    Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell. The headline in the newspaper Welt am Sonntag, the Sunday edition of the German daily Die Welt, revealed “a secret plan for a new Europe” put together by Hermann Van Rompuy, Jean Claude Juncker, Mario Draghi and José Manuel Barroso, the leaders of the four main…

  • THE TOWERING MOUNTAIN, SWAYING FROM SIDE TO SIDE, by François Leclerc

    Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell. “There is a first assessment, then a second, a third, a fourth…..It’s the worst possible way of doing things because everybody ends up doing the right thing but at the highest possible cost and price”. Who was it speaking so harshly yesterday of banking losses and…

  • SPANISH PIPE DREAMS, by François Leclerc

    Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell. A Euro trading this morning at 1.2389 dollars, and sharply rising bond rates, reveal that capital continues to flow out of the Euro zone and that investors are selling Spanish and Italian bonds (both tarred with the same brush) whenever they can. They are also seeking…

  • DISMANTLING UNCERTAIN, ECONOMIC DISASTER GUARANTEED, by François Leclerc

    Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell. It’s already well established that Tepco, the operator of Fukushima, is in control of very little in the devastated nuclear plant. Not the ongoing, endemic contamination of the atmosphere and of the sea, not the status of nuclear fuel reduced to a state of three coriums which either…

  • THE REGULATORS’ INDIGESTIBLE COOKERY, by François Leclerc

    Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell. The debate on growth which is starting to take shape has overshadowed an event which is less spectacular but just as decisive. It concerns the deleveraging of banks, which will have an influence on growth as it is accompanied by a reduction in credit for the economy. The…