Paul Jorion's Blog

Category: Finance

  • AND NOW?

    And now? 14 juin 2012 par Paul Jorion And now? What are we going to do? Now that Spain has lost access to capital markets for its debt? True, the downgrading yesterday evening of Spain’s rating by three notches by Moody’s, from an A3 to Baa3 has not helped matters. But after all, it hasn’t…

  • NOW THE CHAINS ARE GIVING WAY, by François Leclerc

    Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell The chorus of voices is becoming increasingly strident and events are moving very fast: the now inevitable Spanish request to benefit from a rescue package; plus the impending recognition of the failure of the second Greek plan, followed by the negotiation of a third one with…

  • SPAIN IN STORMY WATERS

    Spain in stormy waters 12 juin 2012 par Paul Jorion The 10 year rate for Spanish debt has just reached a historic high. On the 25th November of last year, the rate had beaten a record when it reached 6.72%. Yesterday early in the morning, when the European markets were in ecstasy about the news…

  • THE GOLDEN TOUCH, by François Leclerc

    Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell and Bernard Bouvet In spite of the promise of a hundred billion Euros which has been brought to the table, the markets are still not convinced, and it didn’t take them long to react. By late afternoon, Spanish borrowing rates were edging up again, reaching 6.508%,…

  • WHEN THE WISE MAN POINTS AT THE MOON… (I), by François Leclerc

    Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell. The chaotic ups and downs of the deleveraging process continue inexorably, affecting not only the debt of the member states but also a European banking system which is now in the same mess. What it had been concealing has now been revealed: it is in a…

  • THE RAMIFICATIONS OF THE SPANISH BANKING BAIL-OUT, by François Leclerc

    Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell. Some important details are still lacking with regard to the Spanish banking bailout plan: its final amount, which is going to depend on the results of the audit commissioned by the government; its rate, which we will be coming back to; and the stabilizing measures for…

  • KEEP KICKING THE CAN DOWN THE ROAD…, by François Leclerc

    Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell. The case has been heard: Barack Obama and David Cameron demanded immediate action from the Euro zone leaders, frightened by the prospect of the Spanish and Greek crises occurring at the same time, and Angela Merkel responded by announcing that no miracles should be expected from…

  • DIFFERING DELUSIONS, by François Leclerc

    Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell. Worried by the sight of the Europeans entrenched in their respective positions, Barack Obama reached for his telephone. The day after the G7 videoconference between the Finance ministers and the central bankers, of which nothing came, he successively called David Cameron, Angela Merkel and Mario Monti.…

  • THE INSURERS WILL NOT BE LEFT UNSCATHED, by François Leclerc

    Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell. In the United States, bad news often arrives via the Congressional Budget office (CBO). Reputed for its analyses, this non-partisan Congressional body has just produced a forward-looking report on American debt. According to the CBO, if the tax cuts are renewed and public spending is maintained…

  • A WAIT DESTINED TO LAST, by François Leclerc

    Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell. The European Commission in Brussels is getting ready to unveil a project aiming to prevent and cure the banking crises, destined to enter into service in 2014, certain procedures being foreseen for 2018. There is a certain sense of timing, but certainly not a sense of…

  • WHEN FATE INTERVENES…, by François Leclerc

    Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell. In the blink of an eye, discussions have switched focus. The issue of growth which was at the forefront has rapidly surrendered its place to the elaboration of a plan for the supervision of the banks and the rescue of those in need. Improvisation continues to…

  • NEVER CHANGE A WINNING TEAM !, by François Leclerc

    Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell. The headline in the newspaper Welt am Sonntag, the Sunday edition of the German daily Die Welt, revealed “a secret plan for a new Europe” put together by Hermann Van Rompuy, Jean Claude Juncker, Mario Draghi and José Manuel Barroso, the leaders of the four main…

  • LE MONDE-ÉCONOMIE, Ordinary scandals, Monday 4 – Tuesday 5 June 2012

    My most recent column in the French daily paper Le Monde : Les pigeons de facebook. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell. In the book which he dedicated to the 1929 Crash (*), John Kenneth Galbraith, made the remark that if everyone talks frequently of fraud during periods of crisis, it is not because an endemic…

  • APPEAL TO ALL THE PARLIAMENTARIANS WHO ENVISAGE VOTING THE “BALANCED BUDGET RULE”

    Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell. The inept formulation of the financial stability pact, as well as the “balanced budget rule” which is derived from it, require (as I recalled in a recent column for Le Monde-Économie) a nation’s growth rate to be equal or superior to the level of the “average” coupon demanded by capital…

  • THE TOWERING MOUNTAIN, SWAYING FROM SIDE TO SIDE, by François Leclerc

    Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell. “There is a first assessment, then a second, a third, a fourth…..It’s the worst possible way of doing things because everybody ends up doing the right thing but at the highest possible cost and price”. Who was it speaking so harshly yesterday of banking losses and…

  • THE IRONY OF HISTORY

    Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell. I have made the observation here that what leads us to desire change is never the projection of an idyllic image of a new future world to which we aspire, but rather the present moment in which we live become intolerable. Irony plays a considerable role in history and it…

  • Hellenic Securitisation S.A. – Request for Information, by Panagiotis Grigoriou

    Guest post. Translated from the French by Bernard Bouvet. This is Athens! We are barely able to recover from Memorandum 2 (see the latest entry (Sightseeing Athens) on my blog “Greek Crisis”). The Shock Strategy, when undergone as a…patient, doesn’t give you any respite. Multi-risk, multi-faceted, a total weapon. In the meantime, through the mainstream…

  • IT IS TIME TO RESTRUCTURE CAPITALISM

    An English translation which can be read here of my post “Refonder le capitalisme”: Le moment est venu by Frankly. It Is Time to Restructure Capitalism Is there anything more depressing than the spectacle of the short-term remedies that are being applied at present with a view to saving the capitalist system, in the absence…

  • MASTERS OF THE UNIVERSE: About “The network of global corporate control”, by S. Vitali, J. B. Glattfelder, S. Battiston

    A passionate discussion has started on my French blog about the article The network of global corporate control, by S. Vitali, J. B. Glattfelder, S. Battiston. I’m hoping that a parallel discussion in English starts here. Here an excerpt of the paper to whet your appetite: … nearly 4/10 of the control over the economic…

  • FRANCE 24, The F24 Interview

    With Annette Young, about the current developments of the crisis.