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LOTS OF FROTH, by François Leclerc
Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell
A brand new development in the history of the ECB has occurred: leaks yesterday revealed the broad outlines of its new sovereign debt securities’ purchase programme. One cannot help thinking that it was necessary to prepare the ground in advance, with the ECB decisions falling well short of some of the mounting speculation.
According to Mario Draghi, there will be no limit to the amount of bond purchases on the secondary market – but the scope of the announcement needs to be put into perspective. They will in fact be decided … Read the rest
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BEHIND THE SCENES, by François Leclerc
Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell
There are some sinister goings-on behind the scenes of the European financial system, which are hardly being proclaimed from the rooftops! Even Mario Draghi himself is preoccupied by it, drawing attention to vague manifestations of “fragmentation” which are developing at the heart of the Eurozone. What was he alluding to?
It is occurring in three stages: an ongoing capital flight from countries on the verge of the abyss, leading to their banks becoming increasingly dependent on ECB loans, with the liquidities then supplied by the latter being used to buy state-issued … Read the rest
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THE ONLY REMAINING MEANS OF SAVING THE EURO
Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell
In my articles here, I generally address myself to anyone who wants to read me, but just this once, I would like to direct my address to my fellow financial engineers, and moreover in a tone – also just this once – of provocation which is blatant but, let us hope, efficient as well.
Here we go: a monetary zone has to be able to default in its entirety and restructure its debt (namely, to be able to say, “I can only pay back X centimes for every Euro I have borrowed”) and … Read the rest
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FIRST IT WAS THE AGENCIES, NOW ITS THE FORECASTERS’ FAULT, by François Leclerc
Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell
“I can’t see any time soon when…the pressure will be off” replied David Cameron, the British Prime-Minister, in an interview with The Daily Telegraph. He continued, “this is a period for all countries, not just in Europe but I think you will see it in America too, where we have to deal with our deficits and we have to have sustainable debts”. In conclusion, his austerity policies are likely to continue beyond 2020, as the situation is “a lot tougher than the forecasters were expecting”. Georges Osborne, the Chancellor of … Read the rest
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GUILTY PARTIES WANTED !, by François Leclerc
Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell
In accordance with the predictable script, the bond market is under pressure again. The cost of servicing Spanish and Italian debt has continued to increase as their financing plans move forward in little measured steps. The effect of all this is to place an additional burden on the budgets, undermining those measures which are intended to reduce the deficits.
The statistical institutes INSEE (France), IFO (Germany) and ISTAT (Italy) all agree: Europe is sinking into a recession which they describe as ‘technical” in an attempt to make it sound innocuous, but … Read the rest
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THE WINDOWS MUST REMAIN CLOSED, by François Leclerc
Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell
By rejecting the quartet’s plan, (which has, moreover, already been watered-down) before the summit has even been held, the German deputy foreign affairs minister, Michael Link has placed himself in the avant-garde of all those opposing any attempt at a compromise. The “iron chancellor’s” hard-line approach has not changed: political union first, but not yet, and possibly the rest after that. There is a risk that the only thing left of the elaborate construction, already proposed only in its broadest outlines (even for that of the banking union component) is the … Read the rest
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A BIG BANG, OR NOTHING , by François Leclerc
Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell
With the G20 meeting being held in Mexico at the start of the week, our perspective will find itself altered, falsely accustomed as we are to only seeing the debt crisis from a European angle. On the 18th and 19th June, the greats of this world are going to gather in Los Cabos, a tourist resort in Southern Lower California, under the double auspices of debt and global recovery.
To avoid standing idly by whilst confronted by a disaster of its own making, the British Government has just announced a plan … Read the rest
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THE RAMIFICATIONS OF THE SPANISH BANKING BAIL-OUT, by François Leclerc
Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell.
Some important details are still lacking with regard to the Spanish banking bailout plan: its final amount, which is going to depend on the results of the audit commissioned by the government; its rate, which we will be coming back to; and the stabilizing measures for the banks which will be associated with it. These will include massive lay-offs in the banking sector and will further worsen the unemployment situation.
One other aspect has, however, not been highlighted enough. The funds will have to be paid out – at least initially … Read the rest
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THE TOWERING MOUNTAIN, SWAYING FROM SIDE TO SIDE, by François Leclerc
Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell.
“There is a first assessment, then a second, a third, a fourth…..It’s the worst possible way of doing things because everybody ends up doing the right thing but at the highest possible cost and price”. Who was it speaking so harshly yesterday of banking losses and of the policies of the European leaders? Answer: The ECB president, Mario Draghi, in the course of a hearing before the European parliament.
With his colleagues from the governing council, he drove home this same point, supporting the creation of the “European banking union” proposed … Read the rest