Paul Jorion's Blog

Tag: Spain

  • LOTS OF FROTH, by François Leclerc

    Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell A brand new development in the history of the ECB has occurred: leaks yesterday revealed the broad outlines of its new sovereign debt securities’ purchase programme. One cannot help thinking that it was necessary to prepare the ground in advance, with the ECB decisions falling well…

  • SURRENDER, YOU ARE SURROUNDED!, by François Leclerc

    Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell It is not just Italy and Spain causing problems, after the decisions taken during the last summit suffered a setback, in view of the spectacle of great confusion and nervousness we have witnessed with regard to the joint press release – which wasn’t one – from…

  • SPAIN : THE MARKETS ARE EXPECTING NEW DEVELOPMENTS SOON

    Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell Exceeding 6% on 10 year debt is already dangerous. According to the terms of the balanced budget rule, this signifies that a nation will require growth of around the same amount, whereas in fact Spain has registered a negative growth since the beginning of the year! So, 7.567%…

  • QUIET ON THE SET, AND… INACTION!, by François Leclerc

    Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell Events are moving fast. We were expecting it of Greece, but Spain is overtaking it. Yesterday evening, a human tidal wave invaded Spanish town streets, which these days have become virtually permanent places of mini-demonstrations at midday or after work. Today, at the very moment when…

  • FIRST IT WAS THE AGENCIES, NOW ITS THE FORECASTERS’ FAULT, by François Leclerc

    Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell “I can’t see any time soon when…the pressure will be off” replied David Cameron, the British Prime-Minister, in an interview with The Daily Telegraph. He continued, “this is a period for all countries, not just in Europe but I think you will see it in America…

  • THE RESULT OF UNRAVELLING A BALL OF WOOL… FROM THE WRONG END, by François Leclerc

    Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell François Hollande has confirmed that the Government is going to propose for adoption an organic law (which a simple law cannot undo) in order to have the balanced budget rule adopted, on the advantageous pretext that it is provisional. There have been many occasions in recent…

  • WELL SPOTTED, BRAVO!, by François Leclerc

    Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell As already highlighted the Spanish government is already benefitting from a de facto rescue plan under another name. To save appearances, the new austerity measures put forward for vote in parliament have not been the object of a memorandum jointly signed with those providing the funds,…

  • WHEN WE’RE NOT MOVING FORWARDS WE’RE GOING BACKWARDS…, by François Leclerc

    Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell The European Finance Ministers managed during the course of the night to finalize a minimal agreement, which needs, as usual, to be examined in detail due to its grey areas. They put together a set of nominations to the ECB and the ESM based upon the…

  • GUILTY PARTIES WANTED !, by François Leclerc

    Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell In accordance with the predictable script, the bond market is under pressure again. The cost of servicing Spanish and Italian debt has continued to increase as their financing plans move forward in little measured steps. The effect of all this is to place an additional burden…

  • AFTER THE WORDS, THE MAGIC FORMULA…, by François Leclerc

    Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell What can you say when you are in total disagreement? You can always assert, with one voice, the need for a union! This is this perspective that the quartet composed of José Manuel Barroso, Mario Draghi, Jean-Claude Juncker and Herman Van Rompuy (in alphabetical order) continues…

  • TREASURE HUNT, by François Leclerc

    Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell Following the clues for the next bail-out of the Spanish banks is proving to be a veritable treasure hunt. To participate, follow the guide! Initially, the EFSF (European Financial Stability Facility) is going to borrow funds on the markets, using the member states guarantees, in order…

  • SPAIN: BOND MARKET THIS THURSDAY 21St JUNE

    Spain managed to borrow 2.22 billion Euros this morning. It was hoping to raise 7.7 billion. The Wall Street Journal pointed out that this was “thanks to demand seen overwhelmingly coming from domestic banks”. The coupon obtained by lenders for 2 years was 4.706% (compared with 2.069% on the 1st March); over 3 years it was…

  • THE SPANISH RISK PREMIUM

    The Spanish risk premium There were two bond issues today, one in Spain, the other in Denmark, which allow us to carry out an interesting little calculation of the risk premium required of Spain when it borrows on the capital markets. A short while ago the Spanish Treasury department issued more than 3 billion Euros…

  • Le Vif/L’Express, « There is ALWAYS an alternative », June 22, 2012

    This is an exclusive preview – in English! – of my column which will be published in the Belgian weekly Le Vif/L’Express this coming Thursday The phenomenon is the way in which things manifest themselves to us, and this can be real – either with things appearing as they really are; or it can be…

  • FRANCE AND THE FUTURE OF EUROPE

    France and the future of Europe The fact that Spain seems to have lost all access to the capital markets for the foreseeable future, seeming thus, at first glance, to condemn the entire existence of the Eurozone, was headline news on Paul Jorion’s blog yesterday. Firstly, as discussed in the article ironically entitled “The Greeks…

  • A BIG BANG, OR NOTHING , by François Leclerc

    Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell With the G20 meeting being held in Mexico at the start of the week, our perspective will find itself altered, falsely accustomed as we are to only seeing the debt crisis from a European angle. On the 18th and 19th June, the greats of this world…

  • AND NOW?

    And now? 14 juin 2012 par Paul Jorion And now? What are we going to do? Now that Spain has lost access to capital markets for its debt? True, the downgrading yesterday evening of Spain’s rating by three notches by Moody’s, from an A3 to Baa3 has not helped matters. But after all, it hasn’t…

  • SPAIN IN STORMY WATERS

    Spain in stormy waters 12 juin 2012 par Paul Jorion The 10 year rate for Spanish debt has just reached a historic high. On the 25th November of last year, the rate had beaten a record when it reached 6.72%. Yesterday early in the morning, when the European markets were in ecstasy about the news…

  • HOW CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS WILL HAVE DESTROYED THE EURO

    How credit default swaps will have destroyed the Euro 12 juin 2012 par Paul Jorion And what of the CDS (credit-default swap) speculators who don’t pay taxes? Why don’t we hear anything about them? We hear a lot about the Greeks not paying their taxes, and at the moment, due to the tactlessness of some,…

  • WHEN THE WISE MAN POINTS AT THE MOON… (I), by François Leclerc

    Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell. The chaotic ups and downs of the deleveraging process continue inexorably, affecting not only the debt of the member states but also a European banking system which is now in the same mess. What it had been concealing has now been revealed: it is in a…