Paul Jorion's Blog

Author: Paul Jorion

  • “KANT WAS RIGHT!”

    Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell A female reader of my blog asked me to give her some tips for her upcoming business school exam. This is how I replied. It seems important to me to focus on the possibility that any measures proposed can be generalized. It was Martin Wolf who pointed out…

  • STICKING TO ONE’S PRINCIPLES…, by François Leclerc

    Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell What was the plan being drawn up last week in Rome which Merkel refused to sign up to? The other three participants, Mario Monti, Mariano Rajoy and François Hollande advocated using the EFSF, and in the near future the ESM, directly, to bail-out the banks without…

  • TREASURE HUNT, by François Leclerc

    Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell Following the clues for the next bail-out of the Spanish banks is proving to be a veritable treasure hunt. To participate, follow the guide! Initially, the EFSF (European Financial Stability Facility) is going to borrow funds on the markets, using the member states guarantees, in order…

  • France 24, “Is François Hollande’s fiscal program likely to hurt France’s competitiveness?”, at 7:10 PM, June 21st 2012

    Don’t you love the way this is phrased? Can the guy ever recover from such an even-handed (cough! cough!) way of setting the issue? Anyway, here it is.  

  • THE RETURN OF THE LENDERS OF LAST RESORT, by François Leclerc

    Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell Here is a summary of the situation. Newly named Prime Minister, Antonis Samaras is continuing to put together a government which was voted in on the basis that it would renegotiate a bail-out plan which is falling apart anyway. In supporting him without sending in any…

  • SPAIN: BOND MARKET THIS THURSDAY 21St JUNE

    Spain managed to borrow 2.22 billion Euros this morning. It was hoping to raise 7.7 billion. The Wall Street Journal pointed out that this was “thanks to demand seen overwhelmingly coming from domestic banks”. The coupon obtained by lenders for 2 years was 4.706% (compared with 2.069% on the 1st March); over 3 years it was…

  • THE SPANISH RISK PREMIUM

    The Spanish risk premium There were two bond issues today, one in Spain, the other in Denmark, which allow us to carry out an interesting little calculation of the risk premium required of Spain when it borrows on the capital markets. A short while ago the Spanish Treasury department issued more than 3 billion Euros…

  • Le Vif/L’Express, « There is ALWAYS an alternative », June 22, 2012

    This is an exclusive preview – in English! – of my column which will be published in the Belgian weekly Le Vif/L’Express this coming Thursday The phenomenon is the way in which things manifest themselves to us, and this can be real – either with things appearing as they really are; or it can be…

  • FRANCE AND THE FUTURE OF EUROPE

    France and the future of Europe The fact that Spain seems to have lost all access to the capital markets for the foreseeable future, seeming thus, at first glance, to condemn the entire existence of the Eurozone, was headline news on Paul Jorion’s blog yesterday. Firstly, as discussed in the article ironically entitled “The Greeks…

  • THE LOSS OF CONFIDENCE IN SPANISH DEBT: LIVE

    In my article this morning ‘The Greeks have made the right choice’ I indicated that: …the 10 year rate for Spanish bonds was 6.82% at opening time this morning and now stands at 7.13%. (10.25 AM). The dramatic progression has continued: it is 2.40 PM and the rate is now at 7.22% The correct Greek…

  • “THE GREEKS HAVE MADE THE RIGHT CHOICE!”

    “The Greeks have made the right choice!” Oh blast, the markets see it differently: the 10 year Spanish rate was at 6.82% at opening this morning and now it’s at 7.25% (3:30 PM). Unheard of, one has to say. Damned markets! Voting for the Troïka method – it was pretty obvious – was voting to…

  • AND NOW?

    And now? 14 juin 2012 par Paul Jorion And now? What are we going to do? Now that Spain has lost access to capital markets for its debt? True, the downgrading yesterday evening of Spain’s rating by three notches by Moody’s, from an A3 to Baa3 has not helped matters. But after all, it hasn’t…

  • SPAIN IN STORMY WATERS

    Spain in stormy waters 12 juin 2012 par Paul Jorion The 10 year rate for Spanish debt has just reached a historic high. On the 25th November of last year, the rate had beaten a record when it reached 6.72%. Yesterday early in the morning, when the European markets were in ecstasy about the news…

  • HOW CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS WILL HAVE DESTROYED THE EURO

    How credit default swaps will have destroyed the Euro 12 juin 2012 par Paul Jorion And what of the CDS (credit-default swap) speculators who don’t pay taxes? Why don’t we hear anything about them? We hear a lot about the Greeks not paying their taxes, and at the moment, due to the tactlessness of some,…

  • LE MONDE-ÉCONOMIE, Ordinary scandals, Monday 4 – Tuesday 5 June 2012

    My most recent column in the French daily paper Le Monde : Les pigeons de facebook. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell. In the book which he dedicated to the 1929 Crash (*), John Kenneth Galbraith, made the remark that if everyone talks frequently of fraud during periods of crisis, it is not because an endemic…

  • APPEAL TO ALL THE PARLIAMENTARIANS WHO ENVISAGE VOTING THE “BALANCED BUDGET RULE”

    Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell. The inept formulation of the financial stability pact, as well as the “balanced budget rule” which is derived from it, require (as I recalled in a recent column for Le Monde-Économie) a nation’s growth rate to be equal or superior to the level of the “average” coupon demanded by capital…

  • THE DESTRUCTION OF OUR PLANET IS PROGRAMMED

    Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell. In our capitalist system, the « advances » which are consented to by some, the holders of capital or « capitalists », in order to render a production process possible or to allow a consumer to consume are remunerated by interest payments. In my book Le prix (2010), I showed,…

  • THE IRONY OF HISTORY

    Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell. I have made the observation here that what leads us to desire change is never the projection of an idyllic image of a new future world to which we aspire, but rather the present moment in which we live become intolerable. Irony plays a considerable role in history and it…

  • QUESTIONS STILL IN NEED TO BE SOLVED (VI) PREDICAMENT OF PRIVATE PROPERTY

    An English translation by Bernard Bouvet of the post  “QUESTIONS À RÉSOUDRE (VI) DILEMMES DE LA PROPRIÉTÉ PRIVÉE”. Private property, as we saw previously, allows you or I to selfishly take advantage of our planet’s generosity towards us and claim ownership of what she bears within her or what she produces spontaneously thanks to the…

  • QUESTIONS STILL IN NEED TO BE SOLVED (V) HOW IS THE AMOUNT OF SURPLUS VALUE DETERMINED

    March 7th, 2012 by Paul Jorion |  An English translation by Jean-Loup Komarower of the post QUESTIONS À RÉSOUDRE (V) COMMENT SE DÉTERMINE LE SURPLUS A set of inputs contribute to the production process: the labour provided by workers, the raw materials used, capital investment. A surplus value arises from this operation, mostly thanks to world ebullition under its two…