Paul Jorion's Blog

Category: Economy

  • 100 DAYS FOR THE NEW PRESIDENT

    Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell. Le Monde, the 27th August : Hollande’s popularity falls by 11 points, according to Ipsos Article first published on the 29th March: In the context of a series of interviews commissioned by LELAB2012 on what is at stake in the presidential and legislative elections in France, I was…

  • UNDERSTANDING THESE TIMES IN WHICH WE LIVE

    Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell. In the Wall Street Journal today: Since the beginning of the crisis in 2007, one thing has become clear in European politics: the outgoing parties are not voted back in. Confronted by the incapacity of the governments and the majorities in place to resolve the problems of the…

  • BEHIND THE SCENES, by François Leclerc

    Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell There are some sinister goings-on behind the scenes of the European financial system, which are hardly being proclaimed from the rooftops! Even Mario Draghi himself is preoccupied by it, drawing attention to vague manifestations of “fragmentation” which are developing at the heart of the Eurozone. What…

  • KNOCKING IT OFF ITS PEDESTAL, by François Leclerc

    Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell As people return from their holidays, the convergence of internal political tensions in Germany, the attempt by the Greek Government to obtain a two year period of grace for its bail-out plan, and the ever-approaching Spanish derailment, have rendered the options for a European rescue even…

  • AH! THE IMAGE OF FINANCE!

    Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell. We learned on Tuesday that the fifth largest British bank, Standard Chartered, had promised the New York State regulator that it would pay a fine of 340 million Dollars for illegal transactions with Iran. The matter is not yet closed, as four other American regulatory bodies continue to…

  • WE ARE EXPECTING THE ECB, BUT WILL WE GET THE FED INSTEAD ?, by François Leclerc

    Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell The U.S. Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee is due to meet on Tuesday and Wednesday, in the context of a renewed slow-down in the country’s growth  (+1.5% in the second quarter), which has been apparent since the beginning of the year. What will be decided upon…

  • LAST CHANCE FOR THE EUROSYSTEM, by François Leclerc

    Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell While the parties in the Greek Coalition government are trying to come to an agreement on a plan to make savings of 11.6 billion Euros over the coming two years, which is going to be painful even though they have to present it as a pledge…

  • MARIO DRAGHI: WHAT IF IT WAS ALL A TERRIBLE MISUNDERSTANDING?

    Translated from the French by Tim Gupwel. A short while ago, I was taking a siesta, sleeping with a sound conscience, when I woke up with a start, my heart beating wildly, my forehead soaked with sweat and prey to a strong emotion: what if we had completely misunderstood the words of Mario Draghi, President…

  • THREE STRATEGIES FOR REDUCING THE DEBT, by François Leclerc

    Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell Whenever monetary creation, or the famous concept of printing money, is alluded to, the idea of hyperinflation is never far away. Subsequently, reference is made to history to predict a return to these episodes that left such an indelible mark in people’s memories. The conclusion immediately…

  • SURRENDER, YOU ARE SURROUNDED!, by François Leclerc

    Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell It is not just Italy and Spain causing problems, after the decisions taken during the last summit suffered a setback, in view of the spectacle of great confusion and nervousness we have witnessed with regard to the joint press release – which wasn’t one – from…

  • WAITING IS NO LONGER A VIABLE POLICY, by François Leclerc

    Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell Once again, the European stock and bond markets have sounded the alarm. The fall in stock values has been accompanied by an increase in bond rates for the countries in the firing line. The capacities of the banks and of the states to fulfill their commitments…

  • THE ONLY REMAINING MEANS OF SAVING THE EURO

    Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell In my articles here, I generally address myself to anyone who wants to read me, but just this once, I would like to direct my address to my fellow financial engineers, and moreover in a tone – also just this once – of provocation which is blatant but,…

  • SPAIN : THE MARKETS ARE EXPECTING NEW DEVELOPMENTS SOON

    Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell Exceeding 6% on 10 year debt is already dangerous. According to the terms of the balanced budget rule, this signifies that a nation will require growth of around the same amount, whereas in fact Spain has registered a negative growth since the beginning of the year! So, 7.567%…

  • QUIET ON THE SET, AND… INACTION!, by François Leclerc

    Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell Events are moving fast. We were expecting it of Greece, but Spain is overtaking it. Yesterday evening, a human tidal wave invaded Spanish town streets, which these days have become virtually permanent places of mini-demonstrations at midday or after work. Today, at the very moment when…

  • FIRST IT WAS THE AGENCIES, NOW ITS THE FORECASTERS’ FAULT, by François Leclerc

    Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell “I can’t see any time soon when…the pressure will be off” replied David Cameron, the British Prime-Minister, in an interview with The Daily Telegraph. He continued, “this is a period for all countries, not just in Europe but I think you will see it in America…

  • THE PROVERBIAL OBJECTIVITY OF THE COLUMNIST, by François Leclerc

    Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell The case is clear-cut judging by the current climate! The banks are behaving like louts, the regulators supervising them are looking the other way, and the politicians are covering their backs. Indeed, it is difficult to draw up a full list of the scandals which have…

  • THE RESULT OF UNRAVELLING A BALL OF WOOL… FROM THE WRONG END, by François Leclerc

    Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell François Hollande has confirmed that the Government is going to propose for adoption an organic law (which a simple law cannot undo) in order to have the balanced budget rule adopted, on the advantageous pretext that it is provisional. There have been many occasions in recent…

  • LE MONDE-ÉCONOMIE, The LIBOR affair…… a scandal postponed from 2008, Monday 16 – Tuesday 17 July 2012

    My most recent column in the French daily paper Le Monde : Le scandale du Libor, c’était en 2008. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell. When the LIBOR affair first broke in April 2008, the press comments were laconic to say the least. Last month, when the fire that had been smouldering flared up again with…

  • PROGRESS, TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE, by François Leclerc

    Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell When there seems no way out, and the future seems unclear, it is then that promising visions of the future seem to abound. The Bundesbank, accompanied by all those who take their cues from it, never miss an opportunity to remind us of the formula they…

  • PERPLEXING MATTERS, by François Leclerc

    Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell Two days ago, Christian Noyer, the Governor of the Bank of France, confidently commented on the decision taken by the BCE to put an end to all remuneration on the liquidities parked in the Eurosystem by the commercial banks. The banks prefer placing their holdings in…