Paul Jorion's Blog

Tag: Greece

  • BEHIND THE SCENES, by François Leclerc

    Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell There are some sinister goings-on behind the scenes of the European financial system, which are hardly being proclaimed from the rooftops! Even Mario Draghi himself is preoccupied by it, drawing attention to vague manifestations of “fragmentation” which are developing at the heart of the Eurozone. What…

  • SURRENDER, YOU ARE SURROUNDED!, by François Leclerc

    Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell It is not just Italy and Spain causing problems, after the decisions taken during the last summit suffered a setback, in view of the spectacle of great confusion and nervousness we have witnessed with regard to the joint press release – which wasn’t one – from…

  • QUIET ON THE SET, AND… INACTION!, by François Leclerc

    Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell Events are moving fast. We were expecting it of Greece, but Spain is overtaking it. Yesterday evening, a human tidal wave invaded Spanish town streets, which these days have become virtually permanent places of mini-demonstrations at midday or after work. Today, at the very moment when…

  • FIRST IT WAS THE AGENCIES, NOW ITS THE FORECASTERS’ FAULT, by François Leclerc

    Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell “I can’t see any time soon when…the pressure will be off” replied David Cameron, the British Prime-Minister, in an interview with The Daily Telegraph. He continued, “this is a period for all countries, not just in Europe but I think you will see it in America…

  • WHEN WE’RE NOT MOVING FORWARDS WE’RE GOING BACKWARDS…, by François Leclerc

    Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell The European Finance Ministers managed during the course of the night to finalize a minimal agreement, which needs, as usual, to be examined in detail due to its grey areas. They put together a set of nominations to the ECB and the ESM based upon the…

  • GUILTY PARTIES WANTED !, by François Leclerc

    Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell In accordance with the predictable script, the bond market is under pressure again. The cost of servicing Spanish and Italian debt has continued to increase as their financing plans move forward in little measured steps. The effect of all this is to place an additional burden…

  • Le Vif/L’Express, « There is ALWAYS an alternative », June 22, 2012

    This is an exclusive preview – in English! – of my column which will be published in the Belgian weekly Le Vif/L’Express this coming Thursday The phenomenon is the way in which things manifest themselves to us, and this can be real – either with things appearing as they really are; or it can be…

  • FRANCE AND THE FUTURE OF EUROPE

    France and the future of Europe The fact that Spain seems to have lost all access to the capital markets for the foreseeable future, seeming thus, at first glance, to condemn the entire existence of the Eurozone, was headline news on Paul Jorion’s blog yesterday. Firstly, as discussed in the article ironically entitled “The Greeks…

  • “THE GREEKS HAVE MADE THE RIGHT CHOICE!”

    “The Greeks have made the right choice!” Oh blast, the markets see it differently: the 10 year Spanish rate was at 6.82% at opening this morning and now it’s at 7.25% (3:30 PM). Unheard of, one has to say. Damned markets! Voting for the Troïka method – it was pretty obvious – was voting to…

  • ON THE EVE OF THE GREEK ELECTIONS, by Panagiotis Grigoriou

    Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell On Thursday 14th June a woman from Crete, aged 32 years old, stole three packs of milk and an ice-cream from a supermarket in Héraklion, causing a loss to the shop of 20.77 Euros. For several days, her four children had been given nothing but plain…

  • A BIG BANG, OR NOTHING , by François Leclerc

    Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell With the G20 meeting being held in Mexico at the start of the week, our perspective will find itself altered, falsely accustomed as we are to only seeing the debt crisis from a European angle. On the 18th and 19th June, the greats of this world…

  • AND NOW?

    And now? 14 juin 2012 par Paul Jorion And now? What are we going to do? Now that Spain has lost access to capital markets for its debt? True, the downgrading yesterday evening of Spain’s rating by three notches by Moody’s, from an A3 to Baa3 has not helped matters. But after all, it hasn’t…

  • HOW CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS WILL HAVE DESTROYED THE EURO

    How credit default swaps will have destroyed the Euro 12 juin 2012 par Paul Jorion And what of the CDS (credit-default swap) speculators who don’t pay taxes? Why don’t we hear anything about them? We hear a lot about the Greeks not paying their taxes, and at the moment, due to the tactlessness of some,…

  • WHEN THE WISE MAN POINTS AT THE MOON… (I), by François Leclerc

    Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell. The chaotic ups and downs of the deleveraging process continue inexorably, affecting not only the debt of the member states but also a European banking system which is now in the same mess. What it had been concealing has now been revealed: it is in a…

  • THE TOWERING MOUNTAIN, SWAYING FROM SIDE TO SIDE, by François Leclerc

    Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell. “There is a first assessment, then a second, a third, a fourth…..It’s the worst possible way of doing things because everybody ends up doing the right thing but at the highest possible cost and price”. Who was it speaking so harshly yesterday of banking losses and…

  • THE IRONY OF HISTORY

    Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell. I have made the observation here that what leads us to desire change is never the projection of an idyllic image of a new future world to which we aspire, but rather the present moment in which we live become intolerable. Irony plays a considerable role in history and it…

  • GREEK DEBT SPECULATORS, NEUTRALISED

    An English translation by Bernard Bouvet of my post “Les spéculateurs sur la dette grecque, neutralisés”. Last Friday’s ruling by the International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA) that the much talked about Greek debt swap, or the so-called private sector initiative (PSI), does not represent a “credit event” and, therefore does not trigger Credit Default…

  • Hellenic Securitisation S.A. – Request for Information, by Panagiotis Grigoriou

    Guest post. Translated from the French by Bernard Bouvet. This is Athens! We are barely able to recover from Memorandum 2 (see the latest entry (Sightseeing Athens) on my blog “Greek Crisis”). The Shock Strategy, when undergone as a…patient, doesn’t give you any respite. Multi-risk, multi-faceted, a total weapon. In the meantime, through the mainstream…

  • MR. STIGLITZ HASN’T BEEN TIPPED OFF

    An English translation by Bernard Bouvet of my post: M. Stiglitz n’est pas au courant. What caused it? Is it the one year 7% decline in Greece’s GDP in 2011, 16% altogether since the crisis began in 2007? Or perhaps the defections among members of the Greek parliament during Sunday’s vote, followed by exclusions from…

  • Le Monde – Économie, Monday 8 – Tuesday 9 March 2010

    Here an English translation of La machine infernale, my monthly column for March in Le Monde – Économie. A DEVILISH DEVICE Only five years ago, we were led to believe that the advertised model of the economic and financial apparatus represented a system that was finally mature: stable because thoroughly predisposed to self-regulate and practically…