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Why, like cats, we have nine lives
Back in 2000 I devoted a paper to some implications of the “many worlds” interpretation of quantum mechanics proposed in 1957 by Hugh Everett III in his Princeton thesis entitled “‘Relative State’ Formulation of Quantum Mechanics”. At the time I had no notion of anybody else in philosophy interested in these issues. The article was…
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Speech acts are generated as the outcome of a dynamics operating on a network
Thought as word dynamics. I. General principles (1)
The general hypothesis is that “speech acts are generated as the outcome of a dynamics operating on a network”; it is specific as far as it states that the data, the “words,” summoned in the generation of speech acts are structured as a network. It is also…
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Stock prices and the shape of randomness
I remember an illustration in an article by Heinz von Foerster in the 1960s. In the first picture, a set of tiny cubes were represented, piled up in a random manner. The reader was told that these were steel cubes magnetized on one of their sides. The second picture showed what had happened after the…
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Thought as Word Dynamics
On two occasions already on my French blog, I’ve written an article in a serialized format, posting each part whenever it was ready then creating a link to a copy of the whole text when it had reached a final form. In both instances has the process taken about two months (Les tâches et…
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The subprime crisis and the future of securitization
…Echanges is a financial journal published monthly by DFCG, the French association of financial officers and auditors. I was asked by Jean-François Casanova who will be the editor of a special issue devoted to securitization to contribute a piece on securitization in the light of the subprime crisis. Here it is, in an English translation.
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What may happen to you because you live in LA
A couple of weeks ago we had a lazy summer Sunday much unlike our habitual boogie boarding or being on the lookout for some new budding talent of the LA pictorial underground: we acted in a video clip for My Ruin.
We had attended the concert in East Hollywood on July 17th; I didn’t mind…
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The ABS and Uncle Sam
Mr. Paul Schulten is asking me the following:
“It is true that delinquencies and losses in residential mortgage backed securities (RMBS) are strongly correlated with home price appreciation (HPA) or in the current environment home price depreciation (HPD).
As we enter a period of possible decline in home prices these losses accumulate first to… -
The credit crunch’s cogwheels
Collective human phenomena are as a rule tricky to analyze and consequently tough understanding and explaining. The reason is learning. Even if at its core a process remains simple, people learn: they observe how things work and they adapt. Adaptation in its turn modifies the process and initiates an endless dynamics of change. Such feedback…
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Old-style publishing a paper
Now when you want to publish an article, you write it, you put it on your website and within days hundreds if not thousands of people have read it. Sometimes someone will approach you and ask if they can publish it in the old-fashioned way, in a journal, and you’ll say “Why not?” In the…
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The un-American solution to the subprime mess
Among the remedies mentioned for the subprime crisis, I haven’t seen listed the system I went through when getting a mortgage in England back in those days. Here is how it worked: the first step would be for you to open an account with a building society; then you would start saving, sending a check…
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Since we can’t fix the subprime mess can we at least make sure it doesn’t happen again?
One of the greatest American traditions is for families to get together at Christmas and watch with ever-renewed delight Frank Capra’s “It’s a Wonderful Life.” Recent events in the financial world, and in the mortgage business in particular, suggest that the movie should be introduced with this important disclaimer: “WARNING: The movie you’re about to…
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Woody Allen’s “Death Knocks”
In Death Knocks, Woody Allen provides a new treatment to a classical theme: a man seeing himself on a final mission succeeds in buying time from the ineluctability of death by challenging a personified death to a game that he wins, gaining so a temporary reprieve. The allegory reminds us that life amounts in every…
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Toons in contemporary LA underground iconography
Since Roy Lichtenstein made a lasting impression on the fine arts’ scene by turning individual frames of comic strips – or at least a likeness of them – into paintings, expanding to their new scale the standard pointilliste techniques for representing shading on newspaper-quality paper, a point of transit has been established between the exclusive…
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Trouble’s a Bubble, introducing the stock synthetic
In January of this year, I gave a talk in Paris, at University of Paris X – Nanterre, to a group of economists on “Value and price.” The paper was published online in April in “La gazette permanente du MAUSS” (1). It is in French – as suits speaking in Paris. There is however an…
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Now that the housing bubble has burst, who’s to blame?
Blame is flying in all directions: mortgage lenders had stopped bothering whether or not borrowers could repay as they were passing the buck to Wall Street anyway; Wall Street firms were using subprime mortgages of any denomination as innocuous stuffing in Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs); regulators failed to curb the worst forms of abuse –…
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The smile in Black and Scholes
This is a bit of a detective story, a bit of a puzzle. The method is archaeological.
This morning a colleague of mine sends me an e-mail entitled “importance of correlations.” There are several attachments. One of them is an article by Don Chance entitled “Rethinking Implied Volatility” (*). In it, the author writes… -
The miracle that never was
I was driving along the Pacific Coast Highway on the morning lap of my daily commute and was listening to the classical music program broadcast from the University of South California and I was thinking to myself “This is great, this is what we like to hear on a classical music station: something different. What…
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California salivating
What we did last Saturday was a bit over the top: we drove 200 miles to have dinner. We’re bound to have eaten too little on Friday night as we woke up the following morning wondering where to have dinner. We ruled out our default solution, the zero degree of our imagination, Gladstone’s in Pacific…
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The Greenspan and Kennedy papers on Equity Extraction from Housing (1990-2006) – A graphic exposition
The first Greenspan and Kennedy paper (*), published in 2005 provides figures about equity extraction in the US over the 1990 to 2005 period. In the first diagram, the numbers for cash-out extracted at the occasion of refinancing are shown along origination of Home Equity Loans and Lines of Credit. There is no essential difference…
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Please keep quiet Mr. Greenspan!
Poor Mr. Greenspan: can’t open his mouth without giving investors the heebie-jeebies!
He promised he would be quiet, just like his predecessor Mr. Volcker was about monetary policy when he himself took over. Even when he only whispers, people pay a lot, a lot of attention, and go into a frenzy of wanting to…