Blog de Paul Jorion

*Godot est mort !*

Catégorie : Guerre

Analyse GENESIS – Trump gagnera … en redéfinissant la victoire

Illustration par ChatGPT

Trump réduit toutes les guerres à leur dimension commerciale

Pour Trump, il n’existe qu’une seule métrique de victoire : le solde commercial et…

avril 1, 2026
Pronostic GENESIS sur la guerre en Iran : chiffres mis à jour

Illustration par ChatGPT

Ce qui change fondamentalement

La nouvelle centrale est celle-ci : Trump est prêt à terminer la guerre sans rouvrir Ormuz, en renvoyant le…

mars 31, 2026
Analyse GENESIS — Ce qu’un déploiement américain changerait structurellement

Illustration par ChatGPT

mars 29, 2026
Animation GENESIS – Ormuz ou la géopolitique comme système émergent

Cliquez sur l’un des scénarios.

Situation au 28 mars 2026 — J+28

M_cross actuel

5%

mars 28, 2026
Animation GENESIS – Asymétrie Iran/monde des exportations pétrolières

L’animation : cliquez sur les boutons ci-dessous

mars 28, 2026
La guerre en Iran vue par GENESIS : Ormuz comme modèle d’interface

Illustration par ChatGPT

Ormuz comme interface GENESIS canonique

Déclaration d’observation préalable

Interface : entre l’Iran (composante A) et le reste du système (B+C+D + monde)

Canal physique :…

mars 28, 2026
La guerre en Iran vue par GENESIS : quatre acteurs, mais un seul système de couplages

Illustration par ChatGPT

La guerre en Iran ne doit pas être analysée comme l’interaction de quatre acteurs souverains, mais comme un système d’émergence d’interface. Son intelligibilité ne réside…

mars 28, 2026
Vidéo – Israël et les États-Unis : la bisbille !

Israël veut la destruction de l’Iran ; les États-Unis commencent à s’interroger sur ce qu’ils veulent vraiment.

mars 18, 2026
Vidéo – L’Iran veut la destruction d’Israël et réciproquement

Où l’on parle de non-réciprocité : l’adversaire est une vermine dont il faut débarrasser la terre.

mars 10, 2026
Seuls l’Iran et Israël étaient prêts !

Illustration par ChatGPT

J’ignore ce qu’il en est pour vous, mais pour moi qui ne connaît pas grand-chose au dossier, il m’a fallu attendre le quatrième jour du…

mars 3, 2026
GENESIS : À quoi sert encore un porte-avions ?

Illustration par ChatGPT

Une discussion entre Jean-Baptiste Auxiètre et Claude Opus 4.5

J-B A :

Dans la perspective de GENESIS, à quoi sert encore un porte-avions ?

Claude :
…

février 1, 2026
Y a-t-il une hypothèse plus éclairante des faits que Trump agent russe ?

Y a-t-il une hypothèse plus éclairante des faits que Trump agent russe ?

Le Monde, « La présidence hors norme de Donald Trump », le 10 septembre 2018

janvier 20, 2026
L’OTAN est-il tombé dans le piège tendu par Poutine et Trump de connivence ?

Si c’est le cas, je ne donne pas cher de notre peau. De toute manière nous serons fixés sous peu.

Si l’on voulait connaître mon avis, je suis bien entendu tout disposé à le donner, mais l’heure est suffisamment grave pour que ce ne soit pas dans le cadre de mon blog.

décembre 30, 2025
La nouvelle doctrine militaire russe

Vous vous souvenez peut-être de l’exposé que j’avais fait le 12 mars à l’École de Guerre. Or, les choses évoluent dans le sens de la tendance que j’avais cru déceler dans la conception que l’on se fait de la guerre du côté russe.

</a> </p></div> <div style="font-style:italic;font-weight:400;" class="wp-block-post-date has-small-font-size"><a href="https://www.pauljorion.com/blog/2025/11/21/la-nouvelle-doctrine-militaire-russe/"><time datetime="2025-11-21T11:27:48+01:00">novembre 21, 2025</time></a></div></div> <div class="wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow"></div> </div> <div style="height:112px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> </li><li class="wp-block-post post-145234 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry category-etats-unis category-geopolitique-2 category-guerre-2 category-propagande category-russie tag-guerre-silencieuse tag-charlie-kirk tag-desinformation tag-doctrine-guerassimov tag-etats-unis tag-guerre-civile-aux-etats-unis tag-russie tag-valeri-guerassimov"> <h2 style="font-style:normal;font-weight:300;" class="alignwide wp-block-post-title has-var-wp-custom-typography-font-size-huge-clamp-2-25-rem-4-vw-2-75-rem-font-size"><a href="https://www.pauljorion.com/blog/2025/09/11/paul-jorion-detecteur-danomalies-professionnel/" target="_self" ><b>Paul Jorion : détecteur d’anomalies professionnel</b></a></h2> <div class="wp-block-columns alignwide is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-f56f613f wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex"> <div class="wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow" style="flex-basis:650px"><div class="wp-block-post-excerpt"><p class="wp-block-post-excerpt__excerpt"><a href="https://www.pauljorion.com/blog/2025/09/11/paul-jorion-detecteur-danomalies-professionnel/"><p><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-145235" src="https://www.pauljorion.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/Kirk.png" alt="" width="2210" height="1365" srcset="https://www.pauljorion.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/Kirk.png 2210w, https://www.pauljorion.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/Kirk-300x185.png 300w, https://www.pauljorion.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/Kirk-1024x632.png 1024w, https://www.pauljorion.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/Kirk-768x474.png 768w, https://www.pauljorion.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/Kirk-1536x949.png 1536w, https://www.pauljorion.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/Kirk-2048x1265.png 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 2210px) 100vw, 2210px" /></p> <p style="text-align: center;"><em>Illustration par ChatGPT</em></p> <p data-start="0" data-end="197">Faisons une mise en parallèle claire entre l’assassinat de Charlie Kirk et les principes de la <strong data-start="105" data-end="129">doctrine…</strong></p></a> </p></div> <div style="font-style:italic;font-weight:400;" class="wp-block-post-date has-small-font-size"><a href="https://www.pauljorion.com/blog/2025/09/11/paul-jorion-detecteur-danomalies-professionnel/"><time datetime="2025-09-11T19:27:12+02:00">septembre 11, 2025</time></a></div></div> <div class="wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow"></div> </div> <div style="height:112px" aria-hidden="true" class="wp-block-spacer"></div> </li></ul> <nav class="alignwide wp-block-query-pagination is-content-justification-space-between is-layout-flex wp-container-core-query-pagination-is-layout-e2853e1a wp-block-query-pagination-is-layout-flex" aria-label="Pagination"> <div class="wp-block-query-pagination-numbers"><span aria-current="page" class="page-numbers current">1</span> <a class="page-numbers" href="https://www.pauljorion.com/blog/category/guerre-2/page/2/">2</a> <a class="page-numbers" href="https://www.pauljorion.com/blog/category/guerre-2/page/3/">3</a> <span class="page-numbers dots">…</span> <a class="page-numbers" href="https://www.pauljorion.com/blog/category/guerre-2/page/21/">21</a></div> <a href="https://www.pauljorion.com/blog/category/guerre-2/page/2/" class="wp-block-query-pagination-next has-small-font-size">Page suivante<span class='wp-block-query-pagination-next-arrow is-arrow-arrow' aria-hidden='true'>→</span></a> </nav></main> </div> <footer class="wp-block-template-part"> <div class="wp-block-group is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained" style="padding-top:var(--wp--custom--spacing--large, 8rem)"> <div class="wp-block-group alignfull is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained"> <div class="wp-block-group alignwide is-content-justification-space-between is-layout-flex wp-container-core-group-is-layout-f28da512 wp-block-group-is-layout-flex" style="padding-top:4rem;padding-bottom:4rem"><p class="wp-block-site-title"><a href="https://www.pauljorion.com/blog" target="_self" rel="home">Blog de Paul Jorion</a></p> <p class="wp-block-paragraph">©Paul Jorion</p> <p class="has-text-align-right wp-block-paragraph">Fièrement propulsé par <a href="https://fr.wordpress.org" rel="nofollow">WordPress</a></p> </div> </div> </div> </footer> </div> <script type="speculationrules"> {"prefetch":[{"source":"document","where":{"and":[{"href_matches":"/blog/*"},{"not":{"href_matches":["/blog/wp-*.php","/blog/wp-admin/*","/blog/wp-content/uploads/*","/blog/wp-content/*","/blog/wp-content/plugins/*","/blog/wp-content/themes/twentytwentytwo/*","/blog/*\\?(.+)"]}},{"not":{"selector_matches":"a[rel~=\"nofollow\"]"}},{"not":{"selector_matches":".no-prefetch, .no-prefetch a"}}]},"eagerness":"conservative"}]} </script>  <script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-PBV9XRPG80"></script> <script> window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-PBV9XRPG80'); </script> <script type="module" src="https://www.pauljorion.com/blog/wp-content/plugins/gutenberg/build/modules/block-library/navigation/view.min.js?ver=96a846e1d7b789c39ab9" id="@wordpress/block-library/navigation/view-js-module" fetchpriority="low" data-wp-router-options="{"loadOnClientNavigation":true}"></script> <script id="decent-comments-block-view-js-extra"> var decentCommentsView = {"nonce":"2e862d306c","site_url":"https://www.pauljorion.com/blog","current_post_id":null,"current_term_id":"3001"}; var decentCommentsView = {"nonce":"2e862d306c","site_url":"https://www.pauljorion.com/blog","current_post_id":null,"current_term_id":"3001"}; var decentCommentsView = {"nonce":"2e862d306c","site_url":"https://www.pauljorion.com/blog","current_post_id":null,"current_term_id":"3001"}; var decentCommentsView = {"nonce":"2e862d306c","site_url":"https://www.pauljorion.com/blog","current_post_id":null,"current_term_id":"3001"}; var decentCommentsView = {"nonce":"2e862d306c","site_url":"https://www.pauljorion.com/blog","current_post_id":null,"current_term_id":"3001"}; var decentCommentsView = {"nonce":"2e862d306c","site_url":"https://www.pauljorion.com/blog","current_post_id":null,"current_term_id":"3001"}; var decentCommentsView = {"nonce":"2e862d306c","site_url":"https://www.pauljorion.com/blog","current_post_id":null,"current_term_id":"3001"}; var decentCommentsView = {"nonce":"2e862d306c","site_url":"https://www.pauljorion.com/blog","current_post_id":null,"current_term_id":"3001"}; var decentCommentsView = {"nonce":"2e862d306c","site_url":"https://www.pauljorion.com/blog","current_post_id":null,"current_term_id":"3001"}; var decentCommentsView = {"nonce":"2e862d306c","site_url":"https://www.pauljorion.com/blog","current_post_id":null,"current_term_id":"3001"}; var decentCommentsView = {"nonce":"2e862d306c","site_url":"https://www.pauljorion.com/blog","current_post_id":null,"current_term_id":"3001"}; var decentCommentsView = {"nonce":"2e862d306c","site_url":"https://www.pauljorion.com/blog","current_post_id":null,"current_term_id":"3001"}; var decentCommentsView = {"nonce":"2e862d306c","site_url":"https://www.pauljorion.com/blog","current_post_id":null,"current_term_id":"3001"}; var decentCommentsView = {"nonce":"2e862d306c","site_url":"https://www.pauljorion.com/blog","current_post_id":null,"current_term_id":"3001"}; var decentCommentsView = {"nonce":"2e862d306c","site_url":"https://www.pauljorion.com/blog","current_post_id":null,"current_term_id":"3001"}; var decentCommentsView = {"nonce":"2e862d306c","site_url":"https://www.pauljorion.com/blog","current_post_id":null,"current_term_id":"3001"}; //# sourceURL=decent-comments-block-view-js-extra </script> <script src="https://www.pauljorion.com/blog/wp-content/plugins/decent-comments/blocks/decent-comments/build/view.js?ver=d524a6e4a42d8bc0f05f" id="decent-comments-block-view-js"></script> <script src="https://www.pauljorion.com/blog/wp-includes/js/jquery/ui/core.min.js?ver=1.13.3" id="jquery-ui-core-js"></script> <script src="https://www.pauljorion.com/blog/wp-includes/js/jquery/ui/mouse.min.js?ver=1.13.3" id="jquery-ui-mouse-js"></script> <script src="https://www.pauljorion.com/blog/wp-includes/js/jquery/ui/resizable.min.js?ver=1.13.3" id="jquery-ui-resizable-js"></script> <script src="https://www.pauljorion.com/blog/wp-includes/js/jquery/ui/draggable.min.js?ver=1.13.3" id="jquery-ui-draggable-js"></script> <script src="https://www.pauljorion.com/blog/wp-includes/js/jquery/ui/controlgroup.min.js?ver=1.13.3" id="jquery-ui-controlgroup-js"></script> <script src="https://www.pauljorion.com/blog/wp-includes/js/jquery/ui/checkboxradio.min.js?ver=1.13.3" id="jquery-ui-checkboxradio-js"></script> <script src="https://www.pauljorion.com/blog/wp-includes/js/jquery/ui/button.min.js?ver=1.13.3" id="jquery-ui-button-js"></script> <script src="https://www.pauljorion.com/blog/wp-includes/js/jquery/ui/dialog.min.js?ver=1.13.3" id="jquery-ui-dialog-js"></script> <script id="wp-block-template-skip-link-js-after"> ( function() { var skipLinkTarget = document.querySelector( 'main' ), sibling, skipLinkTargetID, skipLink; // Early exit if a skip-link target can't be located. if ( ! skipLinkTarget ) { return; } /* * Get the site wrapper. * The skip-link will be injected in the beginning of it. */ sibling = document.querySelector( '.wp-site-blocks' ); // Early exit if the root element was not found. if ( ! sibling ) { return; } // Get the skip-link target's ID, and generate one if it doesn't exist. skipLinkTargetID = skipLinkTarget.id; if ( ! skipLinkTargetID ) { skipLinkTargetID = 'wp--skip-link--target'; skipLinkTarget.id = skipLinkTargetID; } // Create the skip link. skipLink = document.createElement( 'a' ); skipLink.classList.add( 'skip-link', 'screen-reader-text' ); skipLink.id = 'wp-skip-link'; skipLink.href = '#' + skipLinkTargetID; skipLink.innerText = 'Aller au contenu'; // Inject the skip link. sibling.parentElement.insertBefore( skipLink, sibling ); }() ); //# sourceURL=wp-block-template-skip-link-js-after </script> <script src="https://www.pauljorion.com/blog/wp-content/plugins/contact-form-7/includes/swv/js/index.js?ver=6.1.5" id="swv-js"></script> <script id="contact-form-7-js-translations"> ( function( domain, translations ) { var localeData = translations.locale_data[ domain ] || translations.locale_data.messages; localeData[""].domain = domain; wp.i18n.setLocaleData( localeData, domain ); } )( "contact-form-7", {"translation-revision-date":"2025-02-06 12:02:14+0000","generator":"GlotPress\/4.0.1","domain":"messages","locale_data":{"messages":{"":{"domain":"messages","plural-forms":"nplurals=2; plural=n > 1;","lang":"fr"},"This contact form is placed in the wrong place.":["Ce formulaire de contact est plac\u00e9 dans un mauvais endroit."],"Error:":["Erreur\u00a0:"]}},"comment":{"reference":"includes\/js\/index.js"}} ); //# sourceURL=contact-form-7-js-translations </script> <script id="contact-form-7-js-before"> var wpcf7 = { "api": { "root": "https:\/\/www.pauljorion.com\/blog\/wp-json\/", "namespace": "contact-form-7\/v1" }, "cached": 1 }; //# sourceURL=contact-form-7-js-before </script> <script src="https://www.pauljorion.com/blog/wp-content/plugins/contact-form-7/includes/js/index.js?ver=6.1.5" id="contact-form-7-js"></script> <script id="wp-email-js-extra"> var emailL10n = {"ajax_url":"https://www.pauljorion.com/blog/wp-admin/admin-ajax.php","max_allowed":"5","text_error":"The Following Error Occurs:","text_name_invalid":"- Your Name is empty/invalid","text_email_invalid":"- Your Email is empty/invalid","text_remarks_invalid":"- Your Remarks is invalid","text_friend_names_empty":"- Friend Name(s) is empty","text_friend_name_invalid":"- Friend Name is empty/invalid: ","text_max_friend_names_allowed":"- Maximum 5 Friend Names allowed","text_friend_emails_empty":"- Friend Email(s) is empty","text_friend_email_invalid":"- Friend Email is invalid: ","text_max_friend_emails_allowed":"- Maximum 5 Friend Emails allowed","text_friends_tally":"- Friend Name(s) count does not tally with Friend Email(s) count","text_image_verify_empty":"- Image Verification is empty"}; //# sourceURL=wp-email-js-extra </script> <script src="https://www.pauljorion.com/blog/wp-content/plugins/wp-email/email-js.js?ver=2.69.3" id="wp-email-js"></script> <script src="https://www.google.com/recaptcha/api.js?render=6LeCv_0UAAAAAPf-lRJBJla-fYdzCXahne5oO3kE&ver=3.0" id="google-recaptcha-js"></script> <script id="wpcf7-recaptcha-js-before"> var wpcf7_recaptcha = { "sitekey": "6LeCv_0UAAAAAPf-lRJBJla-fYdzCXahne5oO3kE", "actions": { "homepage": "homepage", "contactform": "contactform" } }; //# sourceURL=wpcf7-recaptcha-js-before </script> <script src="https://www.pauljorion.com/blog/wp-content/plugins/contact-form-7/modules/recaptcha/index.js?ver=6.1.5" id="wpcf7-recaptcha-js"></script> <script src="https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.9/MathJax.js?config=default&ver=1.3.13" id="mathjax-js"></script> <script id="wp-emoji-settings" type="application/json"> {"baseUrl":"https://s.w.org/images/core/emoji/17.0.2/72x72/","ext":".png","svgUrl":"https://s.w.org/images/core/emoji/17.0.2/svg/","svgExt":".svg","source":{"concatemoji":"https://www.pauljorion.com/blog/wp-includes/js/wp-emoji-release.min.js?ver=6.9.4"}} </script> <script type="module"> /*! This file is auto-generated */ const a=JSON.parse(document.getElementById("wp-emoji-settings").textContent),o=(window._wpemojiSettings=a,"wpEmojiSettingsSupports"),s=["flag","emoji"];function i(e){try{var t={supportTests:e,timestamp:(new Date).valueOf()};sessionStorage.setItem(o,JSON.stringify(t))}catch(e){}}function c(e,t,n){e.clearRect(0,0,e.canvas.width,e.canvas.height),e.fillText(t,0,0);t=new Uint32Array(e.getImageData(0,0,e.canvas.width,e.canvas.height).data);e.clearRect(0,0,e.canvas.width,e.canvas.height),e.fillText(n,0,0);const a=new Uint32Array(e.getImageData(0,0,e.canvas.width,e.canvas.height).data);return t.every((e,t)=>e===a[t])}function p(e,t){e.clearRect(0,0,e.canvas.width,e.canvas.height),e.fillText(t,0,0);var n=e.getImageData(16,16,1,1);for(let e=0;e<n.data.length;e++)if(0!==n.data[e])return!1;return!0}function u(e,t,n,a){switch(t){case"flag":return n(e,"\ud83c\udff3\ufe0f\u200d\u26a7\ufe0f","\ud83c\udff3\ufe0f\u200b\u26a7\ufe0f")?!1:!n(e,"\ud83c\udde8\ud83c\uddf6","\ud83c\udde8\u200b\ud83c\uddf6")&&!n(e,"\ud83c\udff4\udb40\udc67\udb40\udc62\udb40\udc65\udb40\udc6e\udb40\udc67\udb40\udc7f","\ud83c\udff4\u200b\udb40\udc67\u200b\udb40\udc62\u200b\udb40\udc65\u200b\udb40\udc6e\u200b\udb40\udc67\u200b\udb40\udc7f");case"emoji":return!a(e,"\ud83e\u1fac8")}return!1}function f(e,t,n,a){let r;const o=(r="undefined"!=typeof WorkerGlobalScope&&self instanceof WorkerGlobalScope?new OffscreenCanvas(300,150):document.createElement("canvas")).getContext("2d",{willReadFrequently:!0}),s=(o.textBaseline="top",o.font="600 32px Arial",{});return e.forEach(e=>{s[e]=t(o,e,n,a)}),s}function r(e){var t=document.createElement("script");t.src=e,t.defer=!0,document.head.appendChild(t)}a.supports={everything:!0,everythingExceptFlag:!0},new Promise(t=>{let n=function(){try{var e=JSON.parse(sessionStorage.getItem(o));if("object"==typeof e&&"number"==typeof e.timestamp&&(new Date).valueOf()<e.timestamp+604800&&"object"==typeof e.supportTests)return e.supportTests}catch(e){}return null}();if(!n){if("undefined"!=typeof Worker&&"undefined"!=typeof OffscreenCanvas&&"undefined"!=typeof URL&&URL.createObjectURL&&"undefined"!=typeof Blob)try{var e="postMessage("+f.toString()+"("+[JSON.stringify(s),u.toString(),c.toString(),p.toString()].join(",")+"));",a=new Blob([e],{type:"text/javascript"});const r=new Worker(URL.createObjectURL(a),{name:"wpTestEmojiSupports"});return void(r.onmessage=e=>{i(n=e.data),r.terminate(),t(n)})}catch(e){}i(n=f(s,u,c,p))}t(n)}).then(e=>{for(const n in e)a.supports[n]=e[n],a.supports.everything=a.supports.everything&&a.supports[n],"flag"!==n&&(a.supports.everythingExceptFlag=a.supports.everythingExceptFlag&&a.supports[n]);var t;a.supports.everythingExceptFlag=a.supports.everythingExceptFlag&&!a.supports.flag,a.supports.everything||((t=a.source||{}).concatemoji?r(t.concatemoji):t.wpemoji&&t.twemoji&&(r(t.twemoji),r(t.wpemoji)))}); //# sourceURL=https://www.pauljorion.com/blog/wp-includes/js/wp-emoji-loader.min.js </script>  <div id="cookie-notice" role="dialog" class="cookie-notice-hidden cookie-revoke-hidden cn-position-bottom" aria-label="Cookie Notice" style="background-color: rgba(0,0,0,1);"><div class="cookie-notice-container" style="color: #fff"><span id="cn-notice-text" class="cn-text-container">En poursuivant votre navigation sur ce site, vous acceptez l’utilisation de cookies permettant de conserver vos préférences, d'établir des statistiques et d'afficher des contenus tiers (par exemple, des vidéos YouTube).</span><span id="cn-notice-buttons" class="cn-buttons-container"><button id="cn-accept-cookie" data-cookie-set="accept" class="cn-set-cookie cn-button" aria-label="Ok" style="background-color: #00a99d">Ok</button><button data-link-url="https://www.pauljorion.com/blog/politique-de-confidentialite/" data-link-target="_blank" id="cn-more-info" class="cn-more-info cn-button" aria-label="Politique de confidentialité" style="background-color: #00a99d">Politique de confidentialité</button></span><button type="button" id="cn-close-notice" data-cookie-set="accept" class="cn-close-icon" aria-label="Non"></button></div> </div> </body> </html>