Well, call me sentimental, but in a world of confrontation, disarray and dearth of proper answers, the whole occasion was, please forgive me for being so blunt, perfect.
“What Can We Tell about the Future?” was my final lecture at the Stewardship of Finance chair in the academic year 2012-2013. The lecture was held in English as had been the case with prior ones. Most questions which then came from the room were in French, I answered them in the same tongue.
As a supplement, with yours truly in a somewhat unusual capacity, for the final session taking place on the following day on April 18, students made presentations of their work to Prince Philip and to Princess Mathilda of Belgium.
Here the podcast only of my own lecture:
(Many thanks to Manu Berquin!)
I’ve just heard from Jacques Attali who is currently in Shanghai that he will need to be in New York on Thursday morning. This will make it impossible for him to give the lecture planned at the VUB on Wednesday April 17. I’m sure this will be especially disappointing for those of you for whom it was their second attempt at attending his talk.
The scheduled plan was that I would be giving the second part of the talk, I will thus give it all. I’ll be speaking on the arranged topic: “What can we tell about the future?” and I will explain why the future is particularly unpredictable for those few who, as is the case with Jacques Attali, hold a clearer view than most about where precisely we’re heading.
Hoping to see you in any case on Wednesday at 6:30 pm at the VUB in the Promotie Hall, building D, 2 Pleinlaan, 1050 Brussels.
On the 18th of April will come to an end the first year of my teaching about the “Stewardship of Finance” at the VUB (Vrije Universiteit Brussel). The videos of my lectures can all be viewed here on this blog and the full set can be accessed here.
I’m currently writing up my lectures under book form in the language they were held in i.e. English. My (excellent) French publishers do not publish in that tongue. Interested English-speaking publishers may get in touch with me here.
The fourteenth lecture of the course about on speculation. Pro (LoL) and contra.
The author whose name I unfortunately don’t remember during the lecture: Donald MacKenzie, An Engine, Not a Camera. How Financial Models Shape Markets, Cambridge (Mass.) : MIT Press 2006
The thirteenth lecture on ethical ways of sharing newly created wealth. The situation in Cyprus served as an illustration.
This is the translation by John Holland of my post entitled Complexité et effet Skynet, originally published on June 16th 2012.
The world in which we live today increasingly resembles a science fiction film from the 1950s. Some of those films were excellent because they raised fundamental questions about how machines seize power. Put more simply, they explored how the invasion of the machines–an invasion we have actively fostered for several centuries–leads us to lose control of the world. The film 2001, A Space Odyssey (1968) culminates in a battle: the machine that is really in charge of the mission―and knows how to carry it out―is pitted against the human crew member whom the machine has been programmed to sacrifice. Incapable even of imagining that he is not in command, the human is led by his arrogance to fight back and eventually to escape, although the nature of his salvation turns out to be quite problematic.
Today’s financial markets are the prey of robots that fight their duels in computerized space. This is the result of high-frequency trading algorithms, or algos. Of course there are programmers behind these algos, who write the software and can evaluate its effects at day’s end, fine-tuning when necessary and adding improvements and innovations. Nevertheless, and this is just like neural networks and genetic algorithms (whose inner workings are impenetrable to human perception), certain machine-learning techniques produce highly autonomous behavior in algos as long as they remain in operation. The upshot of this is that the “Skynet effect,” as we have come to call it, is now in play. This is a reference to the omnipotent computer network featured in the Terminator series. In those films, human beings no longer have a role except in a broader context where major decisions are all really made by a confederation of computers.
We must ask ourselves today with the utmost seriousness whether we still have control of computers and robots (other than having the power to flip the “Off” switch, of course). If not, what do we need to do to get it back?
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Since this post was written, its object was illustrated in the graphic novel La survie de l’espèce (Futuropolis 2012) by Gregory Maklès and myself.
Twelfth lecture of the « Stewardship of Finance » chair. It is the notion of risk and the different forms of risk sharing which allow the building of a reasoned catalogue of all types of financial instruments and analysing them in an ethical perspective.
Is it admissible that taxpayers were required not only to pay for all the losses due to defaulting borrowers but also for all the bets between financiers which turned sour (a larger amount by a factor of ten)?
The eleventh lecture of the « Stewardship of Finance » Chair, devoted entirely to the tragic story of the Texan corporation called Enron which was the topic of my book Investing in a Post-Enron World (2003).
Guest post.
« Dédicace too big to … »
Have you heard of “too big to fail !”?
Now they say “too big to jail !”
They know they have the whole power
Because they finance the lawyer!
They don’t care about Justice
Nor about the State Police
They have put the money somewhere
But no one can really know where!
They only want to be The Boss
And let the others share the loss
They will be away if the war
Starts at the corner or next door!
They act as the worst parasites
Because they have more than 2 seats
And they look for good protection
Even with weapons in action!
Are they part of Humanity
Or just dealers in the city?
Can their children say anything
Else than “Bring me here everything!”?
Signature : luami CREER
« Un médiateur d’ l’innovation
Qui allie raison et passion
Pour mieux vivre le temps restant
Et en partager les instants ! »
For registration, precise location and times, please look here.
On March 7th, my lecture will be devoted to the Enron corporation and its downfall as a counter-example of stewardship of finance.
On March 13, Jacques Attali will be our guest. He is head of Pla-Net Finance and of the study group on a positive economy (of which I have the privilege of being a member). He will answer the question “Peut-on théoriser l’avenir ?”
On the following day, on March 14th, I will be discussing “Financial instruments in an ethical perspective”, with an extensive review of those which are at the centre of the current crisis: Credit-Default Swaps, Asset-Backed Securities, Collateralised Debt Obligations and synthetic CDOs.
On the 20th and the 21st of March will be held a three-part, two-day, event dedicated to answer “Is there an ethical manner to ensure the redistribution of newly created wealth?”
It will be initiated by European Commissioner for Trade Karel de Gucht on March 20th. On the following day I will deliver my lecture on the same subject, which will be followed by a Panel discussion with distinguished guests: Bruno Colmant (Roland Berger), Hilde Vernaillen (P&V Group), Benoît Verwilghen (CFO and vice-CEO of Ethias) and Benoît Lallemand (Finance Watch), moderated by Steven Rombaut (VRT journalist).
My lecture on March 28th will be devoted to “Speculation. Its causes, consequences, and history”.
On April 17th, I will be talking about “Our species and the planet which hosts it”. Finally on April 18th there will be a private event for our students writing a Master dissertation within the Chair’s framework (on the occasion of which I will deliver the introductory speech).
The tenth lecture in the course, devoted to risk and insurance: financial risk, systemic risk, the insurance business’ first steps, the methodology: Value at Risk, regulation: Solvency II.
My ninth lecture: labour and capital, talking about the distribution of newly created wealth, the way to conceptualise this, the political stances deriving from this and the light these shed on ethical perspectives about economic and financial issues.
Wednesday, 27 February, 2013 – 19:30 to 21:30
VUB, Etterbeek
Building D
Promotion Hall
Monica Mächler & Hugues Pirotte
Monica Mächler served since January 2009 until the end of September 2012 as Vice Chair of the Board of Directors of the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority FINMA, after having served as CEO of the Swiss Federal Office of Private Insurance from 2007 to 2008. In the International Association of Insurance Supervisors she was a member of the Executive Committee and Chair of the Technical Committee.
Hugues Pirotte is professor at the Solvay Brussels School of Economics and Management, ULB. He is cofounder of the Finance Club of Brussels and Finmetrics. He is also member of the BEL20 Committee.
Thursday, 28 February, 2013 – 16:30 to 18:00
VUB, Etterbeek
Aula QB
Following my lecture 15:00 to 16:30, Panel discussion with Antonio Cano (AGI), Jos Brumagne (Belfius Ins), Henk Janssen (Baloise Insurance), Monica Mächler (FINMA) & Hugues Pirotte (ULB) moderated by Steven Rombaut (VRT journalist)
Aistotle’s theory of price formation. His chrematistics: the role of money in society.
I start with a brief recap of my seventh lecture on Lord Adair Turner’s distinction between “useful” and “useless” financial activities.
Eight of the fifteen lectures have by now been given in the first year of the “Stewardship of Finance” chair at the VUB (Vrije Universiteit Brussel). There have been also two (most lively) guest panels, and four guest talks by distinguished visitors: Luc Coene, Governor of the Belgian central bank, Tomas Sedlacek (economist-philosopher, author of “Economics of Good and Evil”), Emmanuel Todd (demographer and historian) and Michel Prada (former head of the French regulator of financial markets). Both the lectures and panels are available on video form for all to see, on the VUB site and on my French-speaking and English-speaking blogs.
There is more to come of course: Jacques Attali will be our guest in March, plus another event whereof it is premature to say more but, as you will then realize, will show how much interest the chair is actually eliciting in the community. In the past week indeed, the Belgian daily L’Écho has devoted four pages to the chair, I was on the national French-speaking radio on Friday and on the Controverse programme of RTL.be on Sunday. Next Sunday, I will be on Retours du dimanche on France Culture.
This all might be buzz of no consequence, but the true reward is the way the main message of the chair is making progess in the minds: that finance should be at the service of the community, instead of being a rogue predator claiming extraterritoriality from ethics, a permanent threat on the rampage, from which the ordinary citizen should shelter.
There is still a long way to go of course but progress is fortunately constant. I’ll keep you posted!
The panel discussion which took place after my lecture. Participants were Mathias Dewatripont (BNB-ULB), Jean Bellemans (Vesalius), Thierry Philipponnat (Finance Watch) and Guy Roelandt (Belfius Ins). The moderator was Steven Rombaut, from vrt, the Flemish Belgian radio and television.
The Vrije Universiteit Brussel is honored to invite you to attend the last two invited talks of this year.
Wednesday 5th of December – Emmanuel Todd: Les élites européennes: incompétence historique et anthropologique? This talk will be held in French
Emmanuel Todd is a French historian, sociologist and political scientist at the National Institute of Demographic Studies (INED), in Paris.
Entrance is free but please register here for the talk.
Wednesday 19th of December – Michel Prada: Crise financière et régulation: progrès et problèmes. This talk will be held in French
Michel Prada is Chairman of the Board of Trustees of the IFRS Foundation/Président du Conseil de Normalisation des Comptes Publics (France) and Ancien Président de l’Autorité des Marchés Financiers (France).
Entrance is free but please register here for the talk.
Both invited talks are part of the Academic Chair ‘Stewardship of Finance’ founded by Vrije Universiteit Brussel and sponsored by six major insurance companies. ‘The current financial crisis has shown that a moral reflection is most certainly necessary.’ The chairman of this new chair is Professor of economic and financial law, Michel Flamée. The holder of the chair is famous Belgian anthropologist, Paul Jorion.
19:30 Introduction by Paul Jorion
19:40 Invited talk
20:30 Q&A
21:00 Concluding remarks
Location: VUB, Promotion Hall, Building D, 2nd Floor, Campus Etterbeek, Pleinlaan 2, 1050 Brussels.
For more information on the Academic Chair, please see here
