This short film made with Seedance 2.0 is absolutely insane.The realism looks like a real movie — no one can…
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WE ARE EXPECTING THE ECB, BUT WILL WE GET THE FED INSTEAD ?, by François Leclerc
Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell
The U.S. Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee is due to meet on Tuesday and Wednesday, in the context of a renewed slow-down in the country’s growth (+1.5% in the second quarter), which has been apparent since the beginning of the year. What will be decided upon this time?
Two successive quantitative easing operations, nicknamed QE1 and QE2, have enabled the Fed to inject some 2.3 trillion Dollars into the purchase of Treasury bonds or securities issued by mortgage refinancing organizations. In the light of the mixed results of the…
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LAST CHANCE FOR THE EUROSYSTEM, by François Leclerc
Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell
While the parties in the Greek Coalition government are trying to come to an agreement on a plan to make savings of 11.6 billion Euros over the coming two years, which is going to be painful even though they have to present it as a pledge of good faith, the European experts are working on a rescue plan, called the “last chance plan”. They are revisiting the issue from a perspective that has already been tackled. A new write-down of Greek debt is being looked into, which will be…
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MARIO DRAGHI: WHAT IF IT WAS ALL A TERRIBLE MISUNDERSTANDING?
A short while ago, I was taking a siesta, sleeping with a sound conscience, when I woke up with a start, my heart beating wildly, my forehead soaked with sweat and prey to a strong emotion: what if we had completely misunderstood the words of Mario Draghi, President of the European Central Bank, the day before yesterday? What if he had actually said something completely different to what we had heard him say?
This is far from impossible: during the period…
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THREE STRATEGIES FOR REDUCING THE DEBT, by François Leclerc
Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell
Whenever monetary creation, or the famous concept of printing money, is alluded to, the idea of hyperinflation is never far away. Subsequently, reference is made to history to predict a return to these episodes that left such an indelible mark in people’s memories. The conclusion immediately drawn is that the same cause will have the same effect.
However, the crisis we are living through might well lead us to a more nuanced picture. The first thing that needs to be considered is that we are seeing an inflation of…
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SURRENDER, YOU ARE SURROUNDED!, by François Leclerc
Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell
It is not just Italy and Spain causing problems, after the decisions taken during the last summit suffered a setback, in view of the spectacle of great confusion and nervousness we have witnessed with regard to the joint press release – which wasn’t one – from Spain, Italy and France demanding immediate implementation. Simultaneously, Greece is providing an example of the strategic retreat of the European authorities and of the IMF.
It is now the ECB and the Eurosystem which hold the vast majority of the Greek debt, a…
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WAITING IS NO LONGER A VIABLE POLICY, by François Leclerc
Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell
Once again, the European stock and bond markets have sounded the alarm. The fall in stock values has been accompanied by an increase in bond rates for the countries in the firing line. The capacities of the banks and of the states to fulfill their commitments are being simultaneously called into question.
For the time being, the means of supporting those who need it are just not there, and it is hoped that Italy does not go down the same path. Patience is needed because the ESM is not…
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THE ONLY REMAINING MEANS OF SAVING THE EURO
Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell
In my articles here, I generally address myself to anyone who wants to read me, but just this once, I would like to direct my address to my fellow financial engineers, and moreover in a tone – also just this once – of provocation which is blatant but, let us hope, efficient as well.
Here we go: a monetary zone has to be able to default in its entirety and restructure its debt (namely, to be able to say, “I can only pay back X centimes for every Euro I have…
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SPAIN : THE MARKETS ARE EXPECTING NEW DEVELOPMENTS SOON
Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell
Exceeding 6% on 10 year debt is already dangerous. According to the terms of the balanced budget rule, this signifies that a nation will require growth of around the same amount, whereas in fact Spain has registered a negative growth since the beginning of the year! So, 7.567% at 10.15 this morning! As the German 10 year Bund stands at 1.255%, this means that for Spain over 10 years there is a risk premium (for the possibility of the debt not being repaid) which can be…
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LE POINT*, Understanding Liborgate – Friday, July 20th, 2012
Paul Jorion worked from 1998 to 2007 in the American banking sphere as a pricing specialist. Here he sets out his vision of ‘Liborgate’ which is currently shaking British banks.
Le Point.fr : What is the LIBOR rate and what is it used for?
Paul Jorion : It’s the rate at which the banks lend to each other. Each establishment declares the rates its competitors charge it in order to lend for three months, six months, a year. Other loan rates are then defined in relation to this rate (consumption, housing), particularly…
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