• NOW THE CHAINS ARE GIVING WAY, by François Leclerc

    Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell The chorus of voices is becoming increasingly strident and events are moving very fast: the now inevitable Spanish request to benefit from a rescue package; plus the impending recognition of the failure of the second Greek plan, followed by the negotiation of a third one with a new extended timescale – whatever the result of the elections this week-end. Having claimed as a “victory” the Spanish banking bail-out (which he had tried to avoid at all costs), Mariano Rajoy can no longer remain in denial, and will now have to acknowledge…

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  • THE CHAINS ARE GOING TO GIVE WAY, by François Leclerc

    Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell Financiers loathe risk, though they don’t mind so much if it is others bearing it. When they refer to it they juxtapose terms of risk aversion or, its opposite, appetite for risk, but this is only another of their manners of speaking (of which they have so many). In reality they cannot stand others making them take risks and when this is required, they make their feelings known about it in the strongest possible terms. For having played with fire to an excessive degree, the Spanish government is paying the price…

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  • SPAIN IN STORMY WATERS

    Spain in stormy waters 12 juin 2012 par Paul Jorion The 10 year rate for Spanish debt has just reached a historic high. On the 25th November of last year, the rate had beaten a record when it reached 6.72%. Yesterday early in the morning, when the European markets were in ecstasy about the news of an 100 billion euro aid package for the Spanish banks via the Spanish state, the rate had dropped back down to 6.02%. It has just reached 6.809% (at 16:27 Paris time). Of course the danger of this type of progression is that an increase…

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  • HOW CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS WILL HAVE DESTROYED THE EURO

    How credit default swaps will have destroyed the Euro 12 juin 2012 par Paul Jorion And what of the CDS (credit-default swap) speculators who don’t pay taxes? Why don’t we hear anything about them? We hear a lot about the Greeks not paying their taxes, and at the moment, due to the tactlessness of some, we hear a lot about international civil servants (more precisely those of the International Monetary Fund) who don’t pay taxes, but, in the case of CDS speculators who pay no taxes, goodness knows why – not a word! It has to be said that it…

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  • THE GOLDEN TOUCH, by François Leclerc

    Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell and Bernard Bouvet In spite of the promise of a hundred billion Euros which has been brought to the table, the markets are still not convinced, and it didn’t take them long to react. By late afternoon, Spanish borrowing rates were edging up again, reaching 6.508%, while Italian rates had exceeded 6%. Spanish sovereign CDS were up sharply. After initially rising, financial stocks plunged on the stock exchanges. The ratings agency Fitch downgraded Santander and BBVA, the two flagships of the Spanish banking system. Even more worrying for the future, the…

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  • WHEN THE WISE MAN POINTS AT THE MOON… (I), by François Leclerc

    Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell. The chaotic ups and downs of the deleveraging process continue inexorably, affecting not only the debt of the member states but also a European banking system which is now in the same mess. What it had been concealing has now been revealed: it is in a very sick and feeble state. In order to subdue and contain this gradual process, new bail-out instruments have had to be put in place – which are the subject of much debate; their effectiveness is limited since they are part of a debt-reduction strategy which…

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  • THE RAMIFICATIONS OF THE SPANISH BANKING BAIL-OUT, by François Leclerc

    Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell. Some important details are still lacking with regard to the Spanish banking bailout plan: its final amount, which is going to depend on the results of the audit commissioned by the government; its rate, which we will be coming back to; and the stabilizing measures for the banks which will be associated with it. These will include massive lay-offs in the banking sector and will further worsen the unemployment situation. One other aspect has, however, not been highlighted enough. The funds will have to be paid out – at least initially…

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  • A HUNDRED BILLION EUROS FOR SPANISH BANKS, by François Leclerc

    Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell. It was no longer possible to carry on. Two and a half hours of videoconference between the Eurozone’s finance ministers (joined by Christine Lagarde on behalf of the IMF) were needed to finalize the scheme, allowing the German and Spanish governments to save face. Germany made sure that aid for the Spanish banks passed via the State, thus increasing Spain’s deficit, whilst Spain attempted to explain that this was not a bail-out plan or a loss of sovereignty, with, furthermore, the assistance not being subject to any austerity measures. Up to…

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  • KEEP KICKING THE CAN DOWN THE ROAD…, by François Leclerc

    Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell. The case has been heard: Barack Obama and David Cameron demanded immediate action from the Euro zone leaders, frightened by the prospect of the Spanish and Greek crises occurring at the same time, and Angela Merkel responded by announcing that no miracles should be expected from the Summit at the end of June. She continues to insist on a gradual long-term evolution towards budgetary and political union (within the next 5 to 10 years according to Mario Draghi) and to dig her heels in with regard to any measures which would…

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  • DIFFERING DELUSIONS, by François Leclerc

    Guest post. Translated from the French by Tim Gupwell. Worried by the sight of the Europeans entrenched in their respective positions, Barack Obama reached for his telephone. The day after the G7 videoconference between the Finance ministers and the central bankers, of which nothing came, he successively called David Cameron, Angela Merkel and Mario Monti. With this latter, the strengthening of the discussions centered on the Euro zone and growth. With David Cameron, who is going to meet Angela Merkel in Berlin, it was about the need for an “immediate plan”. Of the conversation with Angela Merkel no details have…

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