Brexit : vous trouviez ici les nouvelles avec quatre ans d’avance

Le Monde, le 8 avril 2021 : Boris Johnson condamne une nouvelle nuit de violences en Irlande du Nord

Les difficultés d’approvisionnement dans la province britannique, conséquences du Brexit, ont participé à créer un sentiment de trahison chez les unionistes.

Sondage Ipsos Mori pour l’élection le 6 mai du Parlement Écossais : 81 sièges pour les partis pro-indépendance (Scottish Nationalist Party et Verts), 48 sièges pour les partis prônant le maintien de l’Union.

Or, quatre ans plus tôt…

Le Monde, le 11 avril 2017 : Les Britanniques peuvent-ils vraiment se passer du continent ? par Paul Jorion

La procédure chirurgicale de sortie de l’UE est-elle seulement envisageable ? Le risque de complications est infini. L’Écosse entend demeurer dans l’UE et voit dans un vote d’indépendance – après celui de 2014 où les séparatistes recueillirent 44% des votes – le moyen de s’y maintenir. Une telle amputation du Royaume-Uni marquerait bien sûr sa fin. Le Brexit réintroduirait aussi une frontière « dure » entre l’Irlande et l’Ulster, tragique pas en arrière si l’on pense au sang versé avant d’atteindre la paix en Irlande du Nord.

Trends – Tendances, le 30 novembre 2017 : Brexit et Catalogne : ‘Quelle est la taille idéale de “l’entre-soi”‘ ? par Paul Jorion

Mais le nuage le plus menaçant aujourd’hui était évident avant même que ne soit lancé le referendum : le statut de la frontière entre la province britannique d’Irlande du Nord et la République d’Irlande. L’absence de frontière dure entre les deux fut consacrée par l’Accord du Vendredi saint de 1998, accord passé à l’époque entre deux composantes de l’Union européenne. Le retrait hors de celle-ci du Royaume-Uni remettrait l’accord en question et obligerait à redéfinir une frontière « dure » à un endroit ou un autre : soit entre les deux Irlandes, soit entre l’île entière et la Grande-Bretagne. Et sur ce point, le désaccord est absolu, la République d’Irlande mettant son veto à la première option, et le Royaume-Uni, à la seconde.

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21 réflexions sur « Brexit : vous trouviez ici les nouvelles avec quatre ans d’avance »

    1. La scolarité Nord irlandaise en 2018 (Source Department of Education)
      51% catholiques
      37% protestants
      12 % autres

      Les élections législatives de 2016:

      https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%89lections_l%C3%A9gislatives_nord-irlandaises_de_2016#:~:text=Des%20%C3%A9lections%20l%C3%A9gislatives%20ont%20lieu%20en%20Irlande%20du,du%20Nord%2C%20chambre%20monocam%C3%A9rale%2C%20au%20suffrage%20universel%20direct.

      1 : DUP : Parti Unioniste Démocrate pour le maintien avec l’UK
      2 : Sinn Fein pour la réunion avec l’Irlande

      L’élection de l’Assemblée Nord Irlandaise en 2017 qui fonctionne sur la base du vote cross community:

      https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assembl%C3%A9e_d%27Irlande_du_Nord

      Les dernières élections européennes 2019-2024
      https://www.europarl.europa.eu/election-results-2019/fr/resultats-nationaux/royaume-uni/college-electoral-nord-irlandais/2019-2024/

      1 – Sinn Fein
      2 – DUP

      https://www.la-croix.com/Monde/Europe/Irlande-Nord-fin-lhegemonie-DUP-2019-12-13-1201066419

      Élections générales au Royaume-Uni en Irlande du Nord en 2019:

      https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%89lections_g%C3%A9n%C3%A9rales_britanniques_de_2019_en_Irlande_du_Nord

      Sinn Fein + SDLP : 7+2 ( pour la réunion avec l’Irlande)
      DUP : 8 sièges

      Pour la première fois le DUP n’est plus majoritaire à la chambre des communes pour l’Ulster

      Il y a un basculement progressif électoral et démographique majoritaire catholique au détriment des protestants unionistes.

      Le gouvernement exécutif nord irlandais actuel est une coalition consociationaliste.
      https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ex%C3%A9cutif_de_la_6e_l%C3%A9gislature_de_l%27Assembl%C3%A9e_d%27Irlande_du_Nord

      basé sur l’accord du Vendredi Saint
      https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accord_du_Vendredi_saint

      Lors du Brexit, l’un des premiers points négociés a été la question irlandaise : les liens commerciaux de l’Irlande, la zone de mobilité commune et l’Accord du Vendredi saint.
      Le 4 mars 2021, plusieurs organisations nord-irlandaises unionistes déclarent ne plus apporter leur soutien aux accords de paix conclus en 1998.

      U.E / évolution démographique : la décennie promet d’être compliquée et évolutive en Irlande du Nord.

      4
      1. Le plus gênant est que les anglais, Boris J. en tête n’aient pas compris
        C’est à marée basse, après les élections en écosse, en Irlande et les effets volume, prix sur les importations qu’ils comprendront

  1. Le sentiment d’être quantité négligeable a une puissance inverse au degré de “négligeabilité” ressenti.
    (Quelle que soit la couleur du gilet).

    2
  2. Those who are familiar with the United Kingdom will not need me to tell them that a dark cloud hovering over the constitutional politics of the British Isles has been, improbable though this may seem, the failing health of the husband of the UK head of state, who passed away this morning.

    As unionist politics and allegiances are closely bound up with the monarchy, which is now dominating the headlines in Blighty and can be expected to go on doing so for some time to come, as often happens even in normal circumstances, unfortunately, I am afraid that all forecasts of the outcome of the Scottish general election on May 6th are now probably somewhat less reliable than would otherwise have been the case. Sad but true.

    As for Northern Ireland, I cannot help recalling that Ireland was partitioned as a result of an agreement which derived from a meeting which took place not far from where I am writing this, in Inverness Town Hall, or rather Inverness Town House, as we say in Scotland. This was the first UK cabinet meeting ever held outside London and was an emergency meeting due to the worsening situation in Ireland, the whole of which was at the time, in 1921, a constitutionally undivided and totally integral part of the United Kingdom.

    As a foundation of the Irish Free State, partition was not acceptable to all of the Irish nationalists, and so they started fighting among themselves instead of against the British, which, needless to say, seemed to be an admirable outcome so far as the British were concerned. After this Irish civil war came the sectarian troubles in the northern province which remained in the UK. As you know, the Good Friday Agreement calmed things down with power sharing and the softest of soft borders between the Irish Republic and Northern Ireland, but Brexit created a border of sorts between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. This is unacceptable to Northern Irish unionists, of course. And so back to the fighting.

    Expect further pressure to be put on the UK Government to abandon the Norther Ireland protocol of the Brexit agreement, a move which would bring it to an end. And so back to the drawing board.

    1
    1. “back to the drawing board”
      Sure?
      Perhaps, firts, back to fighting . But is the fighting spirit still active in the island? I don’t know about second and further parts.

      If UK Government abandon the Northern Ireland protocol, what Europe can do? I can’t help thinking that the British governments have been taken for a ride by the EU bureaucrats. In which case, the easiest way out is not to respect the whole treaty.
      If Europe plays its part well, the government’s reputation could be damaged. Stealth (doing, not saying) could help.
      Viking un jour, viking toujours.
      And time heals.

      R.I.P. Prince Philip.

      1. Ireland is a very curious country. The moment when you think you understand it is the moment when you should realize that you probably have not understood it at all. The European Commission would do well to bear this in mind, as would the UK Government, I venture to suggest.

        What is clear, however, is that the Protocol has caused difficulties which need to be addressed. That would appear to be the message from the streets of Northern Ireland. Unfortunately, it may be impossible to do this satisfactorily, if, as seems to be the case, Brexit is unworkable in the Irish context.

        Brexit does not work for Scotland either, of course, but in modern times the Scots are not given to engaging in violence for the purpose of achieving political aims. Yet Continental Europe loves the Irish and doesn’t care tuppence for Scotland. A single visit to the Berlaymont or the European Parliament is all one needs to learn that if one didn’t know it before.

        Improbable though it may seem, Dublin was a very unionist city at the beginning of the 20th century, no less unionist than Belfast, Glasgow or Edinburgh. Guns and bullets changed that. Irish nationalist separatists know how to get their way and have always been prepared to do what it takes, with unremitting ruthlessness.

        Have you ever read The Riddle in the Sand? Its author was a British civil servant who was engaged in gun running for Irish nationalist separatists in the early years of the 20th century. He went on to fight in the Irish civil war, in the course of which he was stood up against a wall and shot, throwing his life away willingly for his particular version of the cause. On the basis of this madness his son eventually became president of the Irish Republic.

        The French Republic, like the Irish Republic, results from violent revolution and fighting in the street. Your broad boulevards in Paris were designed so as to give a sweeping line of fire for the military as crowds advanced towards them with pitchforks and I know not what. So maybe you have some chance of understanding the Irish and their fighting spirit. I don’t think I can, having seen a live broadcast in which a group of harmless British off-duty soldiers were put to death completely mercilessly for innocently stumbling into an area where they should not have gone during the Troubles in the 1970s.

        The Irish have bathed in blood in recent times. It leaves a mark. Ask Lady Macbeth.

        1. CORRECTION

          The title of the Erskine Childers book to which I referred is actually Riddle of the Sands, not that it makes much difference.

  3. Thank you.
    Unread book.
    In France, we have our share of violent and bloody literature, written by people blind to what is not their cause. We have also proven that in war we die very well. These books are not high literature, just testimonials. And now we are tired of all that.

    Ireland is perhaps difficult to understand. Johnson, on his own, much more. An opportunity for Brussels bureaucrats.

    British royalty will once again prove to be the country’s best show business. Double RIP, Prince Philip.

    1. Riddle of the Sands is hardly “violent and bloody literature”. I merely mentioned it as its plot is set in the environment in which Childers was doing his gun running for the Irish separatist nationalists whose successors the European Union has taken to its heart.

      One should never jump to conclusions, especially in matters concerning Ireland. The author, a member of an Anglo-Irish family who was brought up in Ireland, belonged to Ireland as much as to Great Britain and was therefore as much entitled to choose his allegiance as anyone else. There were many people from Ireland who were British civil servants, as all of the Irish were British citizens and as such were as much British as Irish. Indeed, Irish people continue to be treated in the UK as if they are British. Many are still entitled to UK citizenship and take advantage of it.

      The monarchy, which you do not seem to understand, is an institution which continues to exist and adapt because the British have avoided bloody revolution, preferring continuity, stability and gradual political change within a constitutional framework.

      The Irish nationalist separatists refused to contemplate the form of self-government which the British constitution was prepared to accommodate in the second decade of the 20th century, and so the island of Ireland was partitioned by agreement when the Irish Free State was established. The Irish Republic which developed from that entity claims the whole island and is using the EU to obtain it. You really should be aware of this.

      The UK Government is currently suspected of being prepared to stand back while the Northern Ireland Protocol brings the Good Friday Agreement arrangements to an end, and possibly also the Brexit Agreement. EU inflexibility will no doubt be blamed for all of this on the UK side.

      1. ADDENDUM

        I should perhaps have mentioned that The Riddle of the Sands is an espionage novel which is a quietly contemplative yarn which is considered to be a key work in the genre, a genre which you no doubt have no time for. It is, nevertheless, well written and an absorbing read for the lockdown which you are currently going through in France while we in the UK ascend to the broad sunlit uplands which our highly successful Covid vaccination programme has opened up to us while EU bureaucracy has floundered and is even unwisely failing to acknowledge that it has done so. Arrogance comes before a fall . . . and also afterwards, apparently.

        Do come down off your high horse and have a listen to a jolly good British yarn (albeit by an Irish separatist nationalist):

        https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jQOKYWfyVKs

        1. Si je comprends bien votre pub, va falloir que je me procure et lise “The Riddle of the Sands”. Après tout, j’aimais bien les livres d’espionnage, Le Carré étant le maître avec néanmoins le bien oublié et inégal Pierre Nord.

          Je veux bien faire cet effort, mais comprendre la royauté Britt semble effectivement au-dessus de mes forces , quelque soit ces efforts. J’essaye depuis au moins 50 ans et vous constatez vous-même l’échec.

          Pour l’Irlande, je crois que la question est plus complexe que vous l’affirmez. Un excellent auteur, Elisée Reclus, contemporain de la crise de la pomme de terre en Irlande a écrit des pages inoubliables. Le racisme anti Irlandais des Britt semble un ingrédient ‘indispensable’ à cette tragédie. Racisme sous couvert de libéralisme, la nouvelle mode de l’époque. Vous noterez que Paul a reçu un prix Elisée Reclus.
          On peut remonter aussi à Cromwell…

          Pour s’en tenir à une période plus moderne que ces vieilleries, j’ai lu avec stupéfaction que le chantier naval ‘harland and wolff’ à Belfast avait interdiction, ou s’interdisait, d’embaucher du personnel catholique jusqu’en 1965 environ. Il construisait des bâtiments pour la Royal Navy. D’où des questions de sécurité, sans doute! Un indice minuscule mais significatif.

          Je vais cesser là.
          Mais sans cesser de chercher les infos sur l’évolution respective de l’Irlande et de l’Ecosse. Deux pierres dans votre jardin mais un gros rocher dans celui de Bruxelles. Lourd de prémices et d’indications pour le futur, à ne pas rater. L’idéologie européenne ‘les frontières sont abolies’ récréant 1 ou 2 frontières en dur dans son Nord-Ouest… un must à observer.

  4. I certainly don’t underestimate the layers of complexity of the Irish question and would not dream of disregarding historic wrongs, having experienced sectarian prejudice at the hands of Irish Catholic immigrants in Glasgow when I was but a lad and was taught by them why I was to be hated because I was a Protestant Scot in Scotland long before I encountered French chauvinists, from whom I learned what it is to be looked down upon for being British after learning what it was like to be looked down upon by the English for being Scottish. I hasten to add that I have long since become philosophical about all of these nonsensical prejudices. Whereas they might anger some people, they manage to amuse me, but not much. Fortunately, incidentally, sectarianism never extended much beyond Glasgow and has now largely disappeared.

    As you seem interested, let me, extremely briefly, enlighten you on the subject of the Scottish question, which is much less depressing than the Irish one.

    The Scots are not nationalistic and do not look down on anyone. Nor do we hate anyone, not even the Emglish, which demonstrates just how magnanimous we are. Nor should the Scottish independence movement be understood to be about re-establishing hard borders. It was always envisaged that there would be a Common Travel Area between an independent Scotland and the other territories of the British Isles, just as there always was between independent Ireland and the UK even before they both joined the European Economic Community.

    Brexit, which Scotland did not want and did not vote for, as you no doubt know, has created a paradigmatic shift, which we are endeavouring to come to terms with. We realize that independence now would mean creating an EU border with the rump UK state if Scotland were to join the EU after independence. Therefore, I do not personally believe that that is in the realms of possibility, much though we would have liked to return to the EU fold before the scales began to fall from our eyes and we realized that the EU does not want us, does not understand us and does not care about us.

    These considerations are, however, all academic, I venture to suggest and for the following reason. Things are not as they seem. Are they ever? The Scottish independence movement has to be credible. That is to say that the British establishment has to believe that it is serious about delivering independence, but to be successful it does not need to actually deliver it, because everyone in Scotland knows that for trade reasons and various other reasons we have to be on good terms with the English, even though we find them to be no less irritating than you do. What is most irritating is that we have to go to the extreme of threatening to go independent and risking doing so in order to extract a better constitutional deal from them. To get the English to budge you have to push them. The less they want to budge the harder you have to push.

    Most people in Scotland really only want domestic self-government on a greater scale than we have at present and on a secure and constitutionally entrenched basis, which we do not have at present. If Scotland becomes independent, it will be because the UK Government caused this to happen by failing to make the necessary concessions. Unfortunately, the Johnson administration cannot be counted on to meet this challenge reasonably and realistically. Possibly I am doing him an injustice, but, having encountered him personally, I am not at all certain that this is the case.

    If Scotland becomes independent, the consequences will be considerable and extensive. For example, the re-unification of Ireland will probably be accelerated, and the rump UK state will be required to dismantle and remove its nuclear deterrent from Scottish territory, where it is located in its entirety. Unfortunately or fortunately, the diminished UK will have nowhere else to put it, even if it could afford to relocate it. Naturally, we would not wish to cause the English or indeed others a great deal of trouble and hope that our leverage will be understood and acknowledged so that we do not have to use it.

    I am delighted to discover that you like a ripping yarn, even an espionage one, and am pleased that you decided to use French, as I firmly believe in expressing oneself in one’s mother tongue whenever possible, which is why I do so. Contrary to the impression which I may have given, I am actually fond of France and believe in the European Union despite its various flaws and defects, which is why I very much regret the fact that it looks as if I shall never be a European citizen again.

    Oh, before I forget, a word on the ineffable British monarchy. I am not a monarchist myself, but we have to live with some things which we would not choose to have. Fortunately, there are advantages in not having an executive head of state and in not having a politician at the head of the state at all. The monarch today sits there primarily to prevent that position from being occupied by anyone else. This limits the power of politicians and ensures that the source of all state appointments is independent. There are other ways of achieving these results, but this constitutional monarchy is what we have as a result of our attachment to political and institutional evolution and our total aversion to revolution.

    In any case, the people do not wish to rid themselves of the royal family. It is the democratic wish of the peoples of the United Kingdom that this manifestation of the hereditary principle be maintained within our democracy. Therefore, it goes on and will no doubt continue to evolve. It will certainly have to.

    When you cross into England from France you enter a world which has been a fortress against Europe for centuries. When you cross from England into Scotland you enter a country where you are welcome.

    As this is rather a long text, I fear that some typing errors may have crept in unnoticed. I trust that you will make allowances.

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